Just Above Normal

General Overview: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING RAIN AND SNOW WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST.

EAST: A high pressure system will dominate the eastern United States through the remainder of the week, bringing generally dry conditions to much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Light rain is possible along coastal New England and parts of Maine. By early next week, a cold front will approach from the west, bringing increasing chances for precipitation across the region. The Southeast will remain largely dry through the period with high pressure in control, though some coastal showers are possible along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic seaboard.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near normal temperatures across most of the East, with slight cooling in the Northeast and slight warming in parts of the Ohio Valley.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend begins with temperatures climbing to 3-6°F above normal across much of the region, particularly in the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.

-Days 7-10: Continued mild conditions with temperatures generally 2-4°F above normal across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, gradually returning to near normal by day 10.

CENTRAL: An active weather pattern will dominate the Central US with widespread rain developing across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest mid to late this week, with rain and thunderstorms expected across Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Some showers and thunderstorms may develop along a cold front extending southward into the Central Plans and Mid Mississippi Valley by Friday, with rain and thunderstorm chances continuing across much of the Mississippi Valley through the weekend. The Central Plains will experience above normal temperatures ahead of the system, while cooler air filters in behind the frontal passage. By early next week, precipitation will shift eastward with improving conditions for the Central Plains.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Significantly above normal temperatures across the Central Plains and Midwest, with anomalies of 6-10°F above normal in Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Nebraska.

-Days 4-6: Continued warmth with temperature anomalies peaking at 8-12°F above normal across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, particularly in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

-Days 7-10: Gradual moderation of temperatures with anomalies decreasing to 2-5°F above normal across most of the region by the end of the period.

WEST: Multiple systems will bring precipitation to the region through much of the period. A low pressure system along the West Coast will bring precipitation to parts of California and the Great Basin today and into tomorrow. Rain and high-elevation snow will impact the Northern Rockies. Late this week and into early next week, the Pacific Northwest will see periods of rain, while the Southwest remains largely dry.  Below normal temperatures will persist across much of the West, particularly in California and Nevada.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Below normal temperatures across the West Coast and Great Basin, with anomalies of 4-8°F below normal in California and Nevada. Near normal temperatures in the Southwest.

-Days 4-6: Continued cooler than normal conditions across the West Coast and Great Basin, with gradual warming trend beginning in the Southwest.

-Days 7-10: Temperature anomalies moderating with most areas returning to near normal by the end of the period, though some below normal temperatures persist in parts of the Great Basin and Southwest.

TROPICAL:
Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Lorenzo is currently located approximately 1440 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving north-northwest at 12 mph. Sustained winds are estimated at 35 kts. Lorenzo is expected to maintain it’s strength, with minimal fluctuations in strength expected. Lorenzo will gradually turn to a northwest heading today, expected to dissipate sometime late Thursday. No impacts to the U.S. are expected with TS Lorenzo.

Pacific Basin: A trough located roughly 200 miles S-SW of Guatemala is favored to develop later this week. Current development through 48 hours is medium at 40% and medium through 7 days at 60%.