Heavy Rain and Strong Thunderstorms in the South This Weekend

Conditions remained mostly dry throughout the Upper Midwest early this week, but temperatures trended warmer with highs reaching the 30s and 40s across Iowa and Illinois on Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to rise this weekend into early next week as temperatures could break records and reach as high as 15-25 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Next Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures could approach the 50s and 60s throughout Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. A system will be working across the South this weekend, but parts of the Ohio Valley could see around 0.5-1 inch of rain along the northern extent of this system. Next week, storms from the West will enter the Midwest during the second half of the week and provide risks for snow, mixed wintry precipitation, and rain.

Much like the Upper Midwest, the Northern Plains have had a relatively quiet weather pattern this week with warmer temperatures. Well above average temperatures are expected to continue into early next week with highs reaching into the 50s and 60s for eastern Montana into South Dakota. Snowpack in the northeast will see reductions next week as temperatures get into the mid to upper 30s. Over the weekend, a weaker system moving across southern Canada could provide light rain or snow showers along the Canadian border but much larger systems are expected later next week. The first large system could enter the area late Tuesday to Wednesday with additional storms following late next week or next weekend.

The Central Plains have remained dry this week, but a weaker system moved through Texas Tuesday into Wednesday, providing around or less than 0.5 inches of rain. Temperatures were also on the rise and are expected to remain above average through the middle of next week, leading to more winter wheat coming out of dormancy. Heavy rain will develop across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas late Friday into Saturday along with a risk for isolated stronger storms across Oklahoma and Texas. Around 1-2 inches of rain is forecast across southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern and eastern Texas. A few areas could see isolated higher amounts near three inches. After this system passes, showers will become much more sporadic next week and mainly favor Nebraska with the northerly storm track.

Late Tuesday into early Wednesday, the Mississippi Delta was tagged with light rain showers that produced around or less than 0.25 inches. The next storm system is forecast to move through on Saturday, and heavy rain will be likely in some spots. Much of Arkansas into northern Mississippi could see 1-3 inches of rain. This weekend’s rain along with melting snow in the North and Ohio Valley, should boost water levels along the Mississippi. However, more consistent rain is needed, and next week’s storms will be moving across the North with showers much more limited across the Delta.

A cold front moved through the Southeast during the middle of this week, but showers were relatively light. Some spots in northern Georgia and Alabama saw around 0.5 inches of rain and most locations to the south saw less than 0.25 inches. The same system moving through the Southern Plains and Delta will tag the Southeast late Saturday into Sunday. Swaths of heavier rain exceeding one inch are possible along with a few marginally strong to severe thunderstorms. Conditions trend drier for next week, but temperatures are expected to remain above average. High temperatures could approach the mid-60s to mid-70s by the middle of next week.

Widespread showers moved through the West this week with higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains observing 8-12 inches of snow. Coastal areas of southern and central California also saw 1-2 inches of rain. An upper-air trough from the Gulf of Alaska will move into the West Coast late this weekend with a broad trough extending throughout much of the West early next week. Heavy rain and snow will develop across California next Monday, spreading into the Rockies on Tuesday. As the trough persists across the West next week, multiple rounds of valley rain showers and mountain snow will develop. Additionally, temperatures will cool off to around 5-10 degrees F below average.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com