Heatwave Breaking Up With Showers, But Not Widespread or Heavy

In the Midwest, it has been dry most of the week. But showers are starting to migrate northward into the region to end the week. A system moving through Friday and Saturday will enhance those showers. Another cold front will go through the region Sunday and Monday and should bring through showers of their own. However, models are not producing widespread precipitation across the west, instead coming with batches of scattered showers. Some areas in the west that have been excessively hot this week will see soil moisture falling, even after the heat relents. If the second cold front gets hung up in the Central Plains next week, then showers may drift into the southwest. Otherwise, the region is likely to be drier next week, too.

In the Northern Plains, a heat dome spread across the region this week. Some showers formed along its edge across Montana and the Canadian border, but most areas were dry. The heatwave comes to an end this weekend with a strong front coming through. Despite that, models have relatively isolated showers moving through the region. Depending on where that front stalls, showers could still form across the south regularly, but if it pushes too far south, then only spotty isolated showers are expected next week. Overall, soil moisture is falling in the region and may continue to do so next week as well.

In the Central and Southern Plains, a stalled front and upper-level system have been producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across Texas, where some pockets of heavy rain and flooding have occurred this week. The rest of the region has been dry. Though showers last in Texas into the weekend, the vast majority of the region will remain dry until a front slips south on Sunday and Monday. This front may stall somewhere in the region and be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms next week, being beneficial for soil moisture wherever they develop.

In the Delta, isolated to scattered showers have been falling for most of the week, keeping soil moist and temperatures a few degrees cooler. Those showers are drifting northward into the Midwest and much of the region will be drier through the weekend. A front slipping south into the region next week could be enough to produce more showers next week.

In the Southeast U.S., isolated to scattered showers have been falling for most of the week. Showers are becoming more isolated than earlier this week but will continue well into next week. Drought conditions continue to slowly improve for much of the region, though limited rainfall in the Carolinas and Florida are making drought rather sticky.

In the Western U.S., the monsoon has blossomed over the Four Corners area this week and has spread both west and north to cover many areas of the region with at least some shower activity. That continues through next week. Some areas of heavier rain will be possible around the Four Corners, and heavy downpours could produce some flooding issues in other areas of the region as well. Though lightning may initially spark some wildfires, the coming rainfall will help to ease drought conditions in a lot of the Intermountain areas. Areas near the coast will remain drier where drought could grow.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com