Gulke: Corn Price Roadmap

Reviewing the last seven months of market pricing for December 2026 corn futures reveals much for both the bulls and the bears. Since Jan. 15, 2026 — following the punishing Jan. 12 WASDE report that sent corn and soybean prices retreating — the market has evolved largely as expected (see corn’s roadmap below).

— The markets did not top in mid-February, as most media analysts suggested they would. I felt price appreciation would be solid in the first quarter, with the Iran war fully discounted by mid-May. That mid-May date carries more historical validity than other arbitrary benchmarks.

— The May 13 top came with the disappointing release of the Xi-Trump summit results, which caught speculators and many U.S. analysts off guard and leaning the wrong way.

— The “reset” reflected a 50-cent gain from Jan. 15 to May 13 (to $5.05), followed by a 70-cent drop bottoming June 30. It would surprise many to see just how many commodities bottomed on June 30.

— On a per-acre basis, gross revenue shifted by $1.20 per bushel multiplied by a 183-bushel-per-acre national yield, equaling roughly $220 per acre.

— That made the much-hyped increase in crop input costs a relatively important consideration, even if actual price volatility represented only half of that $220-per-acre swing.

— The disappointing aspect of these rags-to-riches-to-rags events: little attention was paid by input suppliers, cooperatives or land-grant university economists — not to mention the media in general.

— Worse yet, there were no questions from readers, suggesting that price risk management interest has been replaced by apathy, crop insurance and government checks as the primary tools for managing agricultural financial problems.

Agriculture has changed, no doubt. But regardless of this new era of “too important politically to fail,” crops must eventually be sold. I went through something similar in my early farming years, when price risk management was coming into its own. I watched friends concentrate on producing their way to prosperity while ignoring marketing. On a 2,000-acre Illinois farm, I found it was not all that difficult to gross $50,000 more per year. After seven to 10 years, that meant my machinery was paid for and I wasn’t beholden to a bank for working capital. Crop insurance, RMA and hedge-to-arrive contracts weren’t part of my mix. That was then; this is now.

For a 5,000-acre Illinois corn producer today, roughly 1.2 million bushels of corn are at risk. Using the price-volatility example above, gross income shifted by approximately $2.6 million; half that amount is $1.3 million. One can only wonder how many family farms pay income tax on $1.3 million.

Don’t kill the messenger. And yes, liars figure and figures lie. The analysis above is admittedly extreme and deceptively simple to dismiss. There may be many reasons to ignore the message, and money is not the only thing that matters in life. But it is the only scoreboard we have. The fact remains that agriculture can only be “too big to fail” for so long. Apathy seems alive and well.

I recall when my daughter Ashley was weighing her career options — missionary, choir teacher or lawyer. I told her that to be successful, you only need to be 10% better than the competition. The difference in pay between a .300 hitter and a .200 hitter is significant, yet the higher-paid batter only needs to succeed one more time in 10 at-bats than his lower-paid counterpart. Fortunately, she chose law.

Jerry Gulke can be reached at (707) 365-0601 or by email at Jerry@gulkegroup.com