Energy Futures Rise 45% to 55% As Iran War Hits 2nd-Mo

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) — Futures of crude oil and refined products have surged between 45% and 55% in the two months of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, a period marked by the most severe disruption to maritime petroleum flows in modern history.

In crude, NYMEX WTI climbed nearly 45% and ICE Brent about 50% since February 27, just before the breakout of the war.  Downstream, NYMEX Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) futures led with a 55% rally and gasoline remained not too far behind, with a 53% climb.  

The price evolution reflects a market fundamentally reshaped by a war that shows little hopes of a quick diplomatic exit.

NYMEX WTI crude for June delivery hovered at just under $97 bbl on Monday (4/27), versus the $67.02 settlement of February 27.

ICE Brent has followed a similar trajectory, trading almost 50% above pre-war levels at over $108 bbl as the “Hormuz premium” – which refers to the blockade of the Middle East waterway that used to be a transit point for a fifth of the world’s petroleum supply – remains firmly entrenched.

Downstream, the impact of the geopolitical impasse is even more visible at the rack. NYMEX RBOB futures transitioned from $2.2855 gallon pre-war to $3.5017 gallon today, as seasonal demand spikes collide with fears over refinery feedstock reliability.

NYMEX ULSD appreciated $2.6709 gallon to $4.0700, even hitting record highs of $4.7061 in early April.

The U.S. Dollar Index has provided a secondary layer of pressure, currently trading at 98.10. While the index has softened from mid-March highs above 100, it remains 0.6% above its pre-war baseline of 97.5. This strengthening greenback creates a “double-hit” for global importers who must navigate both record-high fuel prices and a more expensive settlement currency.

With U.S. President Donald Trump’s cancellation of peace talks with Iran over the weekend – and Israel launching fresh strikes Sunday (4/26) on suspected hideouts of Iranian ally Hezbollah in Lebanon – risks to the energy complex remain skewed to the upside.