DTN Wheat Six Factors

TREND: The trend has turned sideways for both July Chicago and July Kansas City wheat.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 9,458 futures contracts of Chicago wheat, an increase of 9,721 contracts in the week ended May 27.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercials held a net-long futures position of 7,530 contracts of Chicago wheat as of May 27 and were net buyers of 9,522 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The July Chicago wheat contract is 13 cents under the September contract, unchanged from last week and indicative of a comfortable wheat supply. July KC wheat is now 11 3/4 cents below the September contract, widening (more carry) through the week.

SEASONAL INDEX: Seasonal influence is weak for winter wheat, but winter wheat prices tend to peak in early August and bottom near Thanksgiving.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active Chicago wheat contract (July) fell 4 points to close at the 15th percentile, still an inexpensive price location within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility fell to 6% after July Chicago wheat closed sharply lower on the week as funds sold and a peace plan drew closer.