DTN HRS Six Factors

TREND: The trend for May Minneapolis wheat has now turned lower, closing below the 100-day moving average.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders in Minneapolis wheat were net long 12,005 contracts, a decrease of 10,169 contracts over the week ended June 9.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: CFTC data showed commercials in Minneapolis wheat net short 10,058 contracts as of June 9, a decrease of 12,341 contracts from the previous week. The July contract is priced 23 3/4 cents below the September and is a bearish indication of commercial demand and/or surplus supply.

SEASONAL INDEX: The seasonal influence in spring wheat is weak, but prices tend to peak in late May and bottom somewhere from late September to late November.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active Minneapolis wheat contract (July) rose to the 11th percentile, still an inexpensive location within the five-year price range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for front-month (July) Minneapolis wheat futures remained 8% after prices finished the week modestly higher.