DTN Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for July corn downgraded to sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 103,559 contracts as of June 9, and were net-sellers of 96,383 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders rapidly moved to secure profits on long positions amid a good start to the U.S. growing season in terms of weather.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 53,122 contracts as of June 9, and were net-buyers of 58,272 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The July 2026 contract is priced 8 cents lower than the September 2026 contract, still among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives, and a sign of comfortable old crop supplies. National average corn basis firmed 3 cents through the past week to 32 cents under the July board, showing strength in the past two weeks but still the second weakest of the past decade for mid-June.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (July) corn futures contract finished the most recent week at the 6th percentile, an extremely inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (July) corn contract rose to 8% after prices again traded lower through the week, and closed the week outside of the lower bound of the implied volatility range ($4.15).