DTN Corn Analysis and Recommendations
DTN Corn Analysis and Recommendations
09/03/2025
The latest recommendation was posted on August 6, 2025. See Recommendations below.
POSITIONS
**Note on 2024/25 Crop Sales**
On Dec. 21, the United States Congress passed the American Relief Act of 2025 which included $10B in economic aid to producers. The estimated per acre corn payments of $42.51 equals a per bushel payment of approximately 23 cents per bushel of corn based on the USDA’s 2024 national yield estimate. Final USDA payments may differ slightly from the early $42.51/acre estimate.
2024-25: Canceled previous working order to sell the remaining 25% of 2024 corn inventory and sold in the cash market. The DTN National Corn Index was likely near $3.60 at the time of the recommendation.
2024-25: Amended previous working order to sell the remaining 25% of 2024 corn inventory to $4.17. September futures were near $4.10 at the time of this recommendation.
2024-25: Placed an order to sell the remaining 25% of 2024 corn inventory at $4.28 September futures. September futures were near $4.21 at the time of the recommendation.
2025-26: Hedged 50% of 2025-26 corn production with a custom min/max strategy. Bought $4.20 Dec 2025 corn puts near 20 cents and sold $4.75 Dec 2025 corn calls near 8 1/2 cents for a net cost of near 11 1/2 cents.
2024-25: Previous $5.00 offer to sell May corn filled Jan. 22, 2025. DTN National spot basis was 32 cents under the March. I am assuming 10 cents carry to April/May shipment for a gross cash price of $4.68. Factoring in previous put/call hedge net cash price for this sale is approximately $4.49. 25% of 2024 production remains unsold at this time.
2024-25: Put in a working order with broker or grain company to sell May corn at $5.00 futures, representing 25% of 2024 production with the goal of achieving a $4.70 cash sale for April/May delivery. May futures closed at $4.93 the day of this recommendation.
2024-25: Removed the final 25% put/call strategy at a net cost of 19.875 cents. 50% of 2024 production still remains unsold in cash for which we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities post the bullish January WASDE report.
2024-25: Sold 25% of 2024 corn production on December 11 in the cash market. Unwound half of the previously recommended put/call protection. March 2025 corn futures are near $4.48 1/4 with DTN’s National Cash Index at $4.23. Sale nets approximately $4.13 cash after option premiums. $4.30-4.70 protection remains in place on 25% of production. 50% of 2024/25 production is unsold in cash.
2024-25: Sold 25% of 2024 corn production on October 23 in the cash market for nearby delivery. When cash price was near $3.86. Hedged an additional 50% of production using a put/call min max strategy for 10 cent net cost, $4.30-$4.70 range.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
The trend for corn futures remains down for now. New crop corn futures have now rallied right around a quarter on the December contract since the initial fallout of the August 12 WASDE, which saw the USDA estimate a 16.7-billion-bushel U.S. corn crop behind a 188.8 BPA yield. August has been a dry month for a sizeable stretch of the southern and eastern corn belt, and the Pro Farmer tour in mid-August also found disease pressure as well, both of which are likely leading many traders to believe the USDA has printed the high for the 2025 crop. The catch is, however, that thanks to the heightened 97 million acres of plantings, yield can drop considerably and still result in a record corn crop for 2025 regardless. A fact that may keep a lid on prices. Meanwhile, new crop corn demand remains very strong at these inexpensive prices, with export sales for the new season as of August 21 just about double what they were at the same point a year ago. The corn market is currently a neutral, Type 3 market.
DAILY NOTE
December corn futures closed down 5 cents on Wednesday to $4.18. Corn prices fell at mid-week amid pressure from the dropping soybean market. Rain chances for the eastern Corn Belt through the balance of the week also weighed on values, despite a weekly decline in crop ratings from USDA in Tuesday afternoon’s update. August month-end good-to-excellent ratings were still the second highest of the past decade despite the 2-point drop nationally. The trend in December corn futures remains down for now.
RECOMMENDATIONS*
(8/6/2025)
2024-25:
With corn futures largely ignoring technical support points and seemingly on a path to follow 2024’s seasonal path lower through August, I recommend canceling the previous working order and selling the remaining 25% of 2024 corn production in the cash market. September 2025 corn futures were trading near $3.76 at the time of this recommendation which should put the DTN National Corn Index near $3.60 cash. This is certainly a disappointing sale to close the 2024-25 marketing year, but at this point, with less than a month remaining in the old crop season, I believe attention should be shifted to focusing on the 2025-26 marketing year, attempting to learn from this year’s marketing mistakes while aiming for improvement in the upcoming year.
(7/7/2025)
2024-25:
With corn futures gapping lower as trade resumed following the Independence Day break, I recommend lowering the previously recommended price target for selling the remaining 25% of 2024 production to $4.17 September futures. This is the top of the chart gap left following Sunday’s bearish open. Beyond that, firm downtrend resistance is in place in the corn market, which will likely take a weather event or fundamental surprise to break given the strong seasonal pressure for futures over July and August. September futures are near $4.10 at the time of this recommendation.
(7/3/2025)
2024-25:
The old crop corn fundamental outlook has grown somewhat dreary over the past month or two, as Brazil’s production potential has grown and it is also beginning to seem likely that U.S. ending stocks will grow from the current USDA estimate of 1.365 billion bushels before the end of the season. With these things in mind, consider placing an order with your broker or grain buyer to sell the remaining 25% of 2024 corn production if September futures hit $4.28, the location of downtrend resistance. With the current basis of 14 cents under the September board, net cash should be near $4.14 for this sale. September futures are currently near $4.21 at the time of this recommendation.
(6/30/2025)
2025-26:
Due to the volatile nature of the June Acreage and Stocks report, as well as the overall downward pressure on new crop corn futures due to what has thus far been a non-threatening growing season, consider protecting against further downside risk by purchasing $4.20 December 2025 corn puts bid near 20 cents, covering 50% of 2025 production. Simultaneously, sell December 2025 $4.75 corn calls for near 8 1/2 cents for a net min/max cost of 11-12 cents. The sold call helps to finance the put protection while also allowing upside participation back towards 2025 highs in the event of a late summer rally. For those without brokerage access, consider looking into grain company managed programs, many of which include structured min/max products that function in a similar way.
(1/22/2025)
2024-25:
Previous May corn offer filled Jan. 22, 2025. Assuming traditional carry structure I am making the assumption that a basis of -32K is achievable given the current DTN National spot basis of -32H. This equals a cash price of $4.68 gross, adjusted to net $4.49 after previous option costs are accounted for.
(1/17/2024)
2024-25:
With May corn futures closing Friday, Jan. 17, at $4.93, I recommend placing an order with a broker or grain company, whichever is ideal to sell 25% of 2024 corn production if/when May corn hits $5.00. As a cash offer this should equate roughly a $4.70 gross cash price for April/May delivery given current nearby basis and standard cash carry structure.
(12/11/2024)
2024-25:
I recommend taking advantage of an almost 50-cent rally in front month corn futures since mid-October and sell 25% of 2024 production. Unwind half of the previously recommended put/call protection. DTN’s National Cash Index is approximately $4.23, less than 10 cents premium paid for option protection nets and approximately $4.13 cash for this sale.
(10/23/2024)
2024-25:
I recommend taking advantage of December corn’s 20-cent rally from last week’s lows to sell 25% of the 2024/25 crop as a cash sale for nearby shipment. The DTN National Cash Index for corn is $3.86 at time of recommendation.
I also recommend protecting a further 50% of 2024 production by buying March 2025 $4.30 corn puts and selling March 2025 $4.70 corn calls for a net cost of 10 cents. This is essentially a $4.20-$4.60 min/max contract after fee. Many grain companies have min/max options as a bundled product for those wary about using a broker, otherwise work with your broker to get ideal fills.(4/15/2024)
2024-25:
85% revenue protection with crop insurance is roughly equivalent to owning a new-crop corn put with a $3.96 floor, assuming average yields in 2024. So far, corn put options aren’t offering much opportunity to improve on that, but we’ll keep watching for a better pricing opportunity.
(1/2/2024)
2023-24:
Make the final 25% sale of 2023 corn production for May delivery at this time, checking your own local prices for the best month of delivery. There is still a chance Brazil’s corn production will suffer in 2024, but the U.S. has plenty of corn and Argentina is off to a good start. Crop insurance helped with the expenses of the 2023 crop for many and this sale limits the drain of storage costs and caps the risk of loss. May corn is near $4.79.
*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.