DTN Canola Six Factors

TREND: The trend for November canola is higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK:

Noncommercial traders were net-long 49,652 contracts of canola as of June 9, and were net-buyers of 4,133 contracts through the CFTC reporting period as traders returned to buying amid renewed military strikes in the Persian Gulf.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK:

Commercial traders held a net-short position of 48,797 contracts of canola as of June 9, and were net-sellers of 2,775 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. July canola is currently priced C$8.70 below the November futures contract, weakening (more carry) through the week.

SEASONAL INDEX: Canola prices tend to peak between December and February and bottom in July or August.

PRICE PROBABILITY:

The price of front month (November) canola ended at the 33rd percentile, still a relatively inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY:

The three-month price volatility for front month (November) canola held in the most recent week at 5% as prices ultimately closed fractionally higher in a narrow trade.