DTN Canola Six Factors

TREND: The trend for November canola is higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK:

Noncommercial traders were net-long 80,910 contracts of canola as of August 25, and were net-sellers of 4,960 contracts through the CFTC reporting period as the market turned briefly lower on concerns over small refinery exemption rulings which are set to be announced by the EPA by the end of August.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK:

Commercial traders held a net-short position of 80,208 contracts of canola as of August 25 and were net-buyers of 5,154 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. November 2026 canola is currently priced C$9.50 below the January 2027 futures contract, weakening (more carry) through the most recent week and back to among the highest degree of carry between the contracts through 2026.

SEASONAL INDEX: Canola prices tend to peak between December and February and bottom in July or August.

PRICE PROBABILITY:

The price of front month (November) canola ended the most recent week at the 42nd percentile, rising 4 points through the week but still within the lower half of observed prices within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY:

The three-month price volatility for front month (November) canola rose to 8% in the most recent week as prices traded higher after holding chart support at the three-month moving average ($778.80). Most active futures were higher for the third time in the past four weeks.