Grain and Soy Markets Firmer Wednesday, Led by Bean Oil Again

CME GLOBEX RECAP:

July corn is up 1 cent per bushel, July soybeans are up 6 1/2, July KC wheat is up 1 cent, July Chicago wheat is up 2 3/4 cents, and MIAX July Minneapolis wheat is up 1 3/4 cents.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrials Index rose 228 points on Tuesday and Dow futures are down 232 points early Wednesday. July crude oil futures are up $2.36 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index is up .215 and July gold is down $35.10 an ounce.

CORN:

Corn futures are moderately higher early Wednesday and attempting to halt a three-day slide. July fell to near the lowest level since January as weather remains mostly favorable. The forecast is wetter for the next two weeks and a majority of the ag areas in the U.S. are likely to be well-watered into mid-June. Corn crop ratings are near average after the first release on Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report. U.S. corn demand remains impressive despite the competition from Argentina, where the crop is expected to be record large. Estimates are by the end of this week, the Argentine harvest could approach 40% done. In Brazil, IMEA (the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics) projects the Mato Grosso safrinha corn crop will be up 700,000 metric tons (mt) to 53.4 million metric tons (mmt) and just shy of record large. However, even with that, U.S. corn exports are likely to be ratcheted higher by USDA in the June report. Later Wednesday, the EIA will release their weekly petroleum status report which is expected to show ethanol production remaining steady at 1.06 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.11 million bpd. Reuters reported President Trump said Iran has agreed to not develop a nuclear weapon, but hostilities continued overnight from both countries and crude oil is more than $2 higher as a result. The corn market is severely oversold. DTN’s National Corn Index closed at $4.05 with a corn basis of 36 under the July futures contract. Wednesday morning, USDA reported private export sales of 136,000 metric tons (mt) of corn to South Korea for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year.

SOYBEANS:

The soybean market is drawing strength from the very firm bean oil futures, which are challenging the contract high again as rival oils are higher along with crude oil. Soymeal is also firmer to start. After breaking under what is regarded as a key support area, July beans are attempting to halt a three-day slide. Beneficial weather and the near-record fast planting pace, along with fund liquidation, have pressured soybeans of late. On a bullish note, U.S. soybean crush margins remain record large as domestic demand for biofuels remains very strong. Palm oil futures on Wednesday rose more than 3% as output was projected to fall nearly 5% in May. Traders are anxiously awaiting China purchase interest in U.S. soybeans following their October pledge to buy 25 mmt of U.S. soybeans for the next three years. Rumors abound about China plans to soon drop the 10% tariff on U.S. ag goods. However, currently Brazilian soybeans are offered at a sharp discount to U.S. beans. Funds remain net-long the entire soy complex and have added to the bean oil long, while liquidating some of their soybean and soymeal net long. July beans were able to bounce back above the 100-day moving average early Wednesday. New-crop November soybeans appear to be coiling in a symmetrical triangle with a breakout on either side likely to dictate the next move. DTN’s National Soybean Index closed at $11.05 with a soybean basis of 60 under the July 2026 futures.

WHEAT:

Kansas City July wheat has fallen for nine consecutive days and is up just a penny early Wednesday. Both Chicago and MIAX Minneapolis futures are also higher to start. Despite the well-advertised demise of the U.S. winter wheat crop due to drought and freeze events, plentiful wheat supplies from primary competitors have weighed on U.S. futures markets. That is likely to change in the coming year as tight and costly fertilizer supplies are leading to predictions for a fall in planted area. In Australia, ABARES pegged wheat production for 2026 to plunge to 26.7 mmt, or 9 mmt below last year’s production as area planted is expected to fall by 7%. Drought and the prospect for El Nino to curb production both in Australia and Argentina could lead to tightening world supplies. In the meantime, that is not the case. U.S. wheat has been overpriced to the competition, but that spread has narrowed with the recent break. The wheat market and especially Kansas City, is very oversold and due for a bounce. DTN’s National HRW Index closed at $5.74 and 61 under the July futures board.

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at Rhett.Montgomery@dtn.com