DTN Ag Weather Brief
Very warm temperatures are spreading across the vast majority of the U.S. on Monday. Some showers will be found on the northern edge of that warm from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest as some disturbances ride along a northern boundary.
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:
A ridge is spreading across the U.S. and is quite strong this week. There is a larger trough in northern Canada and another in western Canada. Not much will change over the next couple of days but the western Canada trough will move eastward this weekend, pushing through the northern U.S. as well.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
The ridge will fill right back in behind it next week while the trough reloads in western Canada again. That could be a prominent pattern going into early January.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is deeper with the trough moving through this weekend. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
A storm system will move through the country this weekend, but with uncertain precipitation. It should bring through a quick burst of some cooler air after a record-setting Christmas week. But warmth will come in right behind it for next week, especially in the Plains. Eastern areas may stay on the cooler side for a few days.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH SUN…90 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX AND 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX
LOW SUN…21 BELOW ZERO AT 3 MILES WEST OF INDUS, MN
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY…MEDFORD, OR 1.51 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:
A ridge is spreading across the U.S. and is quite strong this week. There is a larger trough in northern Canada and another in western Canada. Not much will change over the next couple of days but the western Canada trough will move eastward this weekend, pushing through the northern U.S. as well. The ridge will fill right back in behind it next week while the trough reloads in western Canada again. That could be a prominent pattern going into early January.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is deeper with the trough moving through this weekend. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
A storm system will move through the country this weekend, but with uncertain precipitation. It should bring through a quick burst of some cooler air after a record-setting Christmas week. But warmth will come in right behind it for next week, especially in the Plains. Eastern areas may stay on the cooler side for a few days.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:
NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Temperatures were mixed over the weekend as a front settled in. Temperatures will be very warm this week, though cold air in Canada may leak into the area after Christmas for a couple of days. A few systems will move through over the next week, but with very limited precipitation in the forecast.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warmer air is spreading into the region and will be record warm a few days this week. The warmer air will stick around for the end of the year. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air should awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.
MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Warmer air will flood the region this week, melting what is left of the snowpack in most areas. A system will move through on Thursday and Friday, which will bring some showers, mostly as rain and freezing rain. Another system will move through this weekend with more potential showers and a brief burst of some colder air with rain changing to snow.
DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A few showers moved through on Sunday, but most areas were warm and dry. The warmth has melted snow across the Midwest, which will give a very limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. An overall dry forecast through the end of the year and into January is also concerning for river transportation.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front that moved into the south on Sunday will be stalled there for most of the week, producing more widespread and largely beneficial rainfall. Scattered showers continue over much of central Brazil this week, boosting soil moisture for soybeans that continue to move into the pod-fill stage. Some areas in the east in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais will get much less precipitation this week, which could be concerning as temperatures should be very hot when it is not raining.
ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through this weekend with widespread rainfall, but some limited amounts across the south. That front should stall across the far north for most of the week. Another front will move through the country this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved back into the southwest over the weekend and will bring showers through the Mediterranean through most of the week, being favorable for vegetative winter wheat across the south. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. It continues dry for most of the week, with showers coming back in after Christmas Day. Overall, conditions are unfavorable for winter wheat. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture is still mixed around the country’s wheat belt. Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend and continue in the northeast for the next few days. But the rest of the country is forecast to dry out a bit to end the calendar year. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition.
CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall. Very little is forecast through the end of the month.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:
Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.
East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures variable.
Forecast:
West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.
East: Isolated showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures well above normal through Friday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.
Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com
(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.