DTN Ag Weather Brief
A clipper system that brought a band of snow through the Midwest on Thursday is dying out as it crosses into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Friday. However, another is gathering strength across the Northern Plains with a heavy band of snow in Montana. Extremely cold air building over the Canadian Prairies will start to sweep southeast today as well.
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:
There is a ridge over the West and a trough in the East. A small trough is moving through central Canada, which will continue into the East briefly this weekend before getting kicked out as the ridge spreads eastward next week.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Another trough will form over northern Canada, forcing the storm track largely north of the border next week, though northern areas may see some effects.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences for later next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.
Warm air should continue to flood much of the U.S. next week, but cold air will linger up in Canada. A system may move through in the middle of next week, briefly tapping into some of that colder air for a day or two across the north, but the West, Plains, and Southeast should remain very warm next week. With the storm track largely over Canada, chances for precipitation are lower, though moisture coming up from the Gulf of America could produce some showers across the East.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH THU…89 AT 3 MILES EAST OF WOODCREST, CA
LOW THU…17 BELOW ZERO AT 2 MILES EAST OF CELINA, MN
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY…SEATTLE, WA 0.95 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:
There is a ridge over the West and a trough in the East. A small trough is moving through central Canada, which will continue into the East briefly this weekend before getting kicked out as the ridge spreads eastward. Another trough will form over northern Canada, forcing the storm track largely north of the border next week.
The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences for later next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.
Warm air should continue to flood much of the U.S. next week, but cold air will linger up in Canada. A system may move through in the middle of next week, briefly tapping into some of that colder air for a day or two across the north, but the West, Plains, and Southeast should remain very warm next week. With the storm track largely over Canada, chances for precipitation are lower, though moisture coming up from the Gulf of America could produce some showers across the East.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:
NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): One last clipper will move through Friday into Saturday, producing a band of heavy snow. Cold air will flow into the region, but will quickly move out by Monday, being replaced by largely warm air. Cold air will be lingering across western Canada though, and the storm track to the north may bring through some showers and a little taste of that cold next week.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): The storm track to the north has allowed some warmer air into the region. However, a strong cold front will move through on Friday with another blast of colder air. That should be brief though as warmer air moves in early next week and stays around for a while.
Precipitation is generally not expected, but a few spots in Nebraska could see some light amounts Friday and Saturday. Stacking dryness is not favorable for soil moisture with increasing temperatures next week, which may cause drought to spread.
MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A clipper moved through on Thursday into Friday morning with a band of light to moderate snow. One more will follow a similar path for Saturday. Lake-effect snow will occur over the weekend as well. Another blast of extremely cold, arctic air will push through this weekend. It will be very intense and some areas may not make it above zero, but will only last a couple of days with warmer air moving in next week. The storm track will shift north into Canada, but some showers may still occur next week and lingering cold air north of the border has a chance to be brought down for a day or two. But the pattern should be warmer next week, causing snow to melt.
DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Recent precipitation in the Midwest produced a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system throughout the winter, especially with warmer air arriving next week. Some showers will be possible around the middle of next week with moisture coming up from the Gulf, but rainfall amounts continue to trend below normal.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Central Brazil has seen a vast improvement in soil moisture due to heavy rain last week, favoring developing to reproductive soybeans. Showers continue there for the foreseeable future, though not at the same intensity. A front will bring heavier showers to south-central areas on Friday and Saturday with one more early next week. Conditions are either favorable or improving.
ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though the pattern has been slower with rainfall chances, soil moisture is still favorable after an active spring. Some patchy rainfall continues through the weekend, but rainfall is coming at a below-normal pace outside of the north and next week is forecast to be much drier. Issues with some areas getting too dry for developing corn and soybeans will be a concern with time.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): An active pattern over the last several weeks has most areas in good shape with soil moisture. Dormant wheat across the north and central are in good condition. Across the south, some showers will move through Spain over the next several days, but Italy and the Balkans will be dry. More rain would be favorable in Italy, but there isn’t a concern just yet. There may be a secondary storm track across the Mediterranean next week that could bring some showers through.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems moving across northern Europe have been bringing some showers through the region this week, which continues through the weekend. Dryness and drought are still a concern this winter as wheat went dormant late and largely in questionable condition. Some southern areas have been too warm for dormancy, though colder air will work through over the weekend to help facilitate that.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture conditions are mixed with some areas scattered about that are too dry while some are just fine. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested while cotton and sorghum are being planted and going through early growth. Some showers will be possible in eastern growing areas over the next few days, but very little is forecast elsewhere as conditions will continue trending downward in many areas.
CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola in dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. A system moving through on Friday and Saturday will bring through widespread precipitation, but light amounts. Southern areas are still in a much drier trend and in need of more rainfall.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:
Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Scattered snow. Temperatures near to below normal.
East: Scattered snow. Temperatures near to below normal.
Forecast:
West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.
East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.
Temperatures below normal Friday, well below normal Saturday-Monday, near normal Tuesday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Isolated showers far north. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.
Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Sunday.
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers north Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.
Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com
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