DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in Alaska with a ridge over the West. Disturbances will move from the Alaskan trough over the ridge and into the East through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will expand eastward this weekend and a new trough will form over northern Canada, forcing the storm track largely north of the border next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warm air in the West will spread eastward early next week with largely above-normal temperatures for most of the country. The storm track over Canada may allow for some showers across the north, and we’ll see if they can draw up some moisture from the Gulf of America with a front moving through midweek as well. But the bulk of the U.S. should enjoy a break from winter.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE…88 AT 5 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ESCONDIDO, CA AND YORBA LINDA, CA

LOW TUE…27 BELOW ZERO AT NORTHUMBERLAND, NH AND EAST HAVEN, VT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST TUESDAY…PORTLAND, OR 1.91 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in Alaska with a ridge over the West. Disturbances will move from the Alaskan trough over the ridge and into the East through the weekend. The ridge will expand eastward this weekend and a new trough will form over northern Canada, forcing the storm track largely north of the border next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warm air in the West will spread eastward early next week with largely above-normal temperatures for most of the country. The storm track over Canada may allow for some showers across the north, and we’ll see if they can draw up some moisture from the Gulf of America with a front moving through midweek as well. But the bulk of the U.S. should enjoy a break from winter.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A clipper moved through on Tuesday with scattered precipitation that included heavy snow in the northeast and strong winds. Two more clippers still need to move across the region through Saturday, producing more mixed precipitation and sending through a burst of cold air. The cold won’t last long with warmer air moving in early next week. With a storm track largely through Canada, the region may still pick up some precipitation next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): The storm track to the north has allowed some warmer air into the region. However, a strong cold front will move through on Friday with another blast of colder air. That should be brief though as warmer air moves in next week. Precipitation is generally not expected, but a few spots could see some light amounts.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A clipper moving through on Wednesday is bringing scattered showers through the region. Two more clippers will bring streaks of snow through on Thursday and then Friday into Saturday. Lake-effect snow will occur over the weekend as well. Another blast of extremely cold, arctic air is forecast again this weekend. It will be very intense and some areas may not make it above zero, but will only last a couple of days with warmer air moving in next week. The storm track will shift north into Canada, but some showers may still occur next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Recent precipitation in the Midwest produced a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system throughout the winter. Multiple clippers will move through the north this week, keeping the Delta region fairly dry and promoting slow falls in water levels on the rivers. Some showers will be possible around the middle of next week with a front passing through, but rainfall amounts continue to trend below normal.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Central Brazil has seen a vast improvement in soil moisture due to heavy rain over the last week, favoring developing to reproductive soybeans. Showers continue there for the foreseeable future. A stronger system moved through the south on Tuesday with widespread rainfall and pockets of heavy rain to improve soil moisture. Another front will bring heavier showers to south-central areas on Friday and Saturday. Conditions are either favorable or improving.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though the pattern has been slower with rainfall chances, soil moisture is still favorable after an active spring. A couple of chances for patchy rainfall continue this week and weekend, but rainfall is coming at a below-normal pace and next week is forecast to be much drier. Issues with some areas getting too dry for developing corn and soybeans will be a concern with time.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): An active pattern over the last several weeks has most areas in good shape with soil moisture. Dormant wheat across the north and central are in good shape. Across the south, some showers will move through Spain over the next several days, but Italy and the Balkans will be dry. More rain would be favorable in Italy, but there isn’t a concern just yet.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems moving across northern Europe will bring some showers through the region through the weekend. Dryness and drought are still a concern this winter as wheat went dormant late and largely in questionable condition. Some southern areas have been too warm for dormancy, though some cooler air will work through over the weekend.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture conditions are mixed with some areas scattered about that are too dry while some are just fine. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested while cotton and sorghum are being planted and going through early growth. Some showers will be possible in eastern growing areas this week, but very little is forecast elsewhere as conditions will continue trending downward in many areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola in dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. A system moving through late this week will bring through widespread precipitation, but southern areas are still in a much drier trend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday, well below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers southeast Tuesday.

Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Scattered showers and heavy rain. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com