DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in Alaska and another in eastern Canada. A ridge is found over the West. Disturbances will move from the Alaskan trough over the ridge and into the East this week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will expand eastward this weekend and a new trough will form over Canada, which should force some colder air into the U.S. at times next week, but maybe just across the north.

The U.S. and European models are showing agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in the disturbances moving through next week, as well as the strength of cold air. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will spread cold air east of the Rockies on Saturday, but warmer air will spread into the Plains right behind it for early next week. Some of that warmth will try to spread eastward, but a couple of systems moving through will counter that by bringing in some waves of precipitation and more pushes of cold air from western Canada. Models are trying to work out how these systems will develop and how many areas will see the cold coming through.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN…91 AT MCALLEN, TX

LOW  SUN…22 BELOW ZERO AT 2 MILES EAST OF CELINA, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY…JACKSONVILLE, FL 1.34 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in Alaska and another in eastern Canada. A ridge is found over the West. Disturbances will move from the Alaskan trough over the ridge and into the East this week. The ridge will expand eastward this weekend and a new trough will form over Canada, which should force some colder air into the U.S. at times next week.

The U.S. and European models are showing agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in the disturbances moving through next week, as well as the strength of cold air. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will spread cold air east of the Rockies on Saturday, but warmer air will spread into the Plains right behind it for early next week. Some of that warmth will try to spread eastward, but a couple of systems moving through will counter that by bringing in some waves of precipitation and more pushes of cold air from western Canada. Models are trying to work out how these systems will develop and how many areas will see the cold coming through.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Scattered snow moved through over the weekend with a clipper system. Three more clippers will move through this week with almost daily precipitation. Some areas of heavy snow and strong winds will be possible as well. Though temperatures will be rather warm to start the week, more cold air is on the way with another arctic blast for late this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): The storm track is to the north this week, allowing some warmer air into the region. However, a strong cold front will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with some cooler air and then another strong push on Friday with even colder air. That should be brief though as warmer air moves in next week. The fronts may bring through some limited showers across the north.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A clipper moved through over the weekend with some moderate snow and another round of colder air. At least three more clippers will move through this week with variable precipitation, but chances for some more moderate snow, breezy winds, and reinforcing shots of cold air.

Some warmth will move through early this week, but another clipper will put an end to that midweek. Another blast of extremely cold, arctic air is forecast again by the end of the week, but will only last a couple of days.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Recent precipitation in the Midwest produced a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system throughout the winter. The pattern favors clippers this week, keeping the Delta region dry and promoting slow falls in water levels on the rivers. There is some chance for bigger systems next week, but the slow fall in water levels remain a concern for transportation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rain has fallen in central and northern Brazil over the last week, which has been sorely needed for developing to reproductive soybeans. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but showers are coming at a slower pace. There will be a stronger system moving through Monday and Tuesday that should bring through some widespread rainfall, though. Conditions are either favorable or improving.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system started moving through on Sunday and will exit on Monday, but is producing patchy rainfall outside of the north that should get some heavier rainfall on Monday. Though the pattern has been slower with rainfall chances, soil moisture is still favorable after good spring rainfall. A couple of chances for patchy rainfall continue this week, but rainfall is coming at a below-normal pace. Issues with some areas getting too dry for developing corn and soybeans will be a concern with time.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through northwestern areas over the weekend with widespread rainfall for the UK, France, and Germany, maintaining good soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. The Atlantic stays active, bringing more showers through these areas this week while warmth spreads across the continent. Some showers will go through Spain as well, favoring winter wheat there. Warm and drier conditions across Italy and the Balkans will be unfavorable for winter wheat, though soil moisture is still relatively favorable here and concerns about dryness are minimal for now.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems moving across northern Europe may bring some showers through the region this week, though amounts look rather light for most areas. Dryness and drought are still a major concern this winter as wheat went dormant late and largely in questionable condition. Some southern areas are still too warm for dormancy, with above-normal temperatures continuing this week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Some limited showers went through this weekend, but many areas stayed dry, continuing mixed conditions.

Wheat and canola are being harvested while cotton and sorghum are being planted and going through early growth. Some showers will be possible in northeastern growing areas this week, but very little is forecast elsewhere as conditions will continue trending downward in many areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola in dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. A system moving through late this week will bring through widespread precipitation, but southern areas are still in a much drier trend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered snow. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered snow. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday, especially north. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Monday night-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures well below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com