DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a primary trough across Hudson Bay with another trough in the Midwest. Additional disturbances are circling around the primary trough.

There is a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska that is supplying colder air into the trough, but will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough in Alaska and getting pushed down into the western U.S. Disturbances will continue over the top of that ridge and into the East next week as the primary trough is replaced by a ridge as well.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge will do its best to spread eastward next weekend, offering up a mild break to the cold pattern. But the Alaskan ridge is forecast to return the following week, which is more likely to bring a colder pattern again for the end of December.

The U.S. and European models are showing agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A series of clipper systems are forecast to continue next week that should bring through streaks of snow for the north and reinforce some of the cold.

However, the western ridge will bring some warmer temperatures that will leak into the Plains, pushing the cold air into the Midwest and Northeast. One of these pushes of cold air later next week could spread through more of the country briefly, then be replaced by warmer air again the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU…88 AT 17 MILES EAST OF OCHOPEE, FL

LOW THU…27 BELOW ZERO AT 2 MILES SOUTH OF BRIMSON, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST THURSDAY…BATON ROUGE, LA 4.80 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a primary trough across Hudson Bay with another trough in the Midwest. Additional disturbances are circling around the primary trough. There is a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska that is supplying colder air into the trough, but will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough in Alaska and getting pushed down into the western U.S. Disturbances will continue over the top of that ridge and into the East next week as the primary trough is replaced by a ridge as well. The western ridge will do its best to spread eastward next weekend, offering up a mild break to the cold pattern. But the Alaskan ridge is forecast to return the following week, which is more likely to bring a colder pattern again for the end of December.

The U.S. and European models are showing agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A series of clipper systems are forecast to continue next week that should bring through streaks of snow for the north and reinforce some of the cold.

However, the western ridge will bring some warmer temperatures that will leak into the Plains, pushing the cold air into the Midwest and Northeast. One of these pushes of cold air later next week could spread through more of the country briefly, then be replaced by warmer air again the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Cold air will continually be reinforced as systems and fronts move across the region through next week, but some warmer air may move in between those pushes of cold air as well. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every other day.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system and cold front will move through this weekend. There may not be much precipitation with it and warmer air will move in after it passes. However, another strong cold front is forecast for the end of next week that could bring through another brief burst of colder air. The warmer air will eventually win out, but it may be brief too as colder air will be favored for the second half of the month.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Systems are favoring a clipper-like pattern through next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region. That includes some potential for localized heavy snow. One such streak is forecast across Iowa into northern Illinois for Saturday into Sunday. Some warmer temperatures may occur between systems, but should be brief overall. We should see some melting of the snow across the south, though. The precipitation that comes is unlikely to have much of an impact on the drought, but will increase snowpack in some areas across the north.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Recent precipitation in the Midwest included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. A system is moved through on Thursday with some heavy rain across the south, but will not significantly increase water levels. The lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean a slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front has stalled over central Brazil and is producing scattered showers and much-needed heavy rainfall. Models are finally getting this right and soil moisture is increasing for developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering and setting pods. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process. This drier stretch is being broken up by decent rainfall about once per week, which will include another shot of showers along a front moving through Monday and Tuesday.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Argentina continues to be in a drier stretch that is being interrupted by fronts with scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain. Another front will do the same this weekend. The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans, although soil moisture is still largely favorable in most areas. The slow drying process will take some time to have a significant impact if it indeed continues as forecast.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor the northwest through next week, but also across Spain at times, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable in most areas as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation over the last six weeks or so. Though precipitation has been better late this fall, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers over the last week, which continues through much of next week as well. Dormancy is finally taking over most of the region, with a few holdouts across the far south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Wheat and canola are being harvest while cotton and sorghum are being planted. The later crops need some more moisture as those conditions are largely mixed across the country. Limited showers are in the forecast across portions of the east through next week, but the overall trend is for drier conditions. Soil moisture conditions may be falling for the cotton and sorghum crops.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week, though a system may move through with widespread precipitation late next week, including snow across the central and northeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday, especially north.

Temperatures below to well below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Monday, near normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com