DTN Ag Weather Brief
A cold front sits across the South and Southeast U.S. and a system has formed along it Thursday afternoon. That is spreading some heavy rain to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts through Friday. The colder air will relent some on Friday farther north, but a system moving through Canada will produce some snow showers and bring down another push of cold air into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:
There is a primary trough across Hudson Bay with another trough in the Southwest. Additional disturbances are circling around the primary trough.
There is a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska that is supplying colder air into the trough. The frequent troughs and disturbances will continue through the weekend. But the ridge will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough in Alaska and getting pushed down into the western U.S.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Disturbances will continue over the top of that ridge and into the East next week as the primary trough is replaced by a ridge as well.
The U.S. and European models are showing agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
A series of clipper systems are forecast to continue next week that should bring through streaks of snow for the north and reinforce some of the cold.
However, the western ridge will bring some warmer temperatures that will leak into the Plains, pushing the cold air into the Midwest and Northeast. One of these pushes of cold air later next week could spread through more of the country briefly, then be replaced by warmer air again that weekend.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH WED…89 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX
LOW WED…12 BELOW ZERO AT 5 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NORTHGATE, ND
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST WEDNESDAY…JUNEAU, AK 0.54 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:
There is a primary trough across Hudson Bay with another trough in the Southwest. Additional disturbances are circling around the primary trough.
There is a ridge in the North Pacific into Alaska that is supplying colder air into the trough. The frequent troughs and disturbances will continue through the weekend. But the ridge will finally break down this weekend, being replaced by a trough in Alaska and getting pushed down into the western U.S.
Disturbances will continue over the top of that ridge and into the East next week as the primary trough is replaced by a ridge as well.
The U.S. and European models are showing agreement in the overall picture, but have differences in some of the disturbances moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
A series of clipper systems are forecast to continue next week that should bring through streaks of snow for the north and reinforce some of the cold.
However, the western ridge will bring some warmer temperatures that will leak into the Plains, pushing the cold air into the Midwest and Northeast. One of these pushes of cold air later next week could spread through more of the country briefly, then be replaced by warmer air again that weekend.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:
NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Cold air will continually be reinforced as systems and fronts move across the region through next week, but some warmer air may move in between those pushes of cold air as well. Occasional precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will develop every couple of days.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A front continues to move through the Southern Plains on Thursday with areas of showers. Another system and cold front will move through this weekend. There may not be much precipitation with it and warmer air will move in after it passes. However, another strong cold front is forecast for the middle of next week that could bring through another brief burst of colder air. The warmer air will eventually win out, but it may be brief as colder air will be favored for the second half of the month.
MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Systems are favoring a clipper-like pattern through next week. That will promote more streaks of snow, breezy winds, and pushes of cold air through the region. Some warmer temperatures may occur between systems, but should be brief overall. We should see some melting of the snow across the south, though. The precipitation that comes is unlikely to have much of an impact on the drought, but will increase snowpack in some areas across the north.
DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Recent precipitation in the Midwest included a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system. A system is moving through on Thursday with some heavy rain across the south, but will not significantly increase water levels. The lack of heavy precipitation in the forecast will likely mean another slow fall in water levels for the next couple of weeks.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front has stalled over central Brazil and is producing scattered showers and much-needed heavy rainfall. Models are finally getting this right and soil moisture is increasing for developing soybeans, some of which should be flowering. Soil moisture is still favorable farther south, but the frequency of rainfall has certainly fallen, which is starting a slow drying process. This drier stretch is being broken up by decent rainfall about once per week, which will include another shot of showers along a front moving through Monday and Tuesday.
ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Argentina will be dry for the rest of the week with the next front bringing showers in a patchy fashion this weekend.
The heavy rain being sandwiched between long stretches of dry weather is likely producing variable conditions for developing corn and soybeans across the country, although soil moisture is still largely favorable in most areas.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Frequent systems in the Atlantic will favor the northwest through next week, but also across Spain, which could use some more precipitation for vegetative winter wheat. Overall conditions are still favorable in most areas as a lot of the wheat is entering dormancy.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe have only produced limited showers over the last week, which continues through next week as well.
Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, but is finally occurring across all but the far southern areas as average temperatures continue to decline.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Wheat and canola are undergoing harvest while cotton and sorghum are being planted. The later crops need some more moisture as those conditions are largely mixed across the country. Limited showers are in the forecast across portions of the east through next week, but the overall theme is drier conditions. Soil moisture conditions may be falling for the cotton and sorghum crops.
CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola that are heading into dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week, though a system may move through with widespread precipitation late next week.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:
Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.
East: Scattered snow. Temperatures below normal.
Forecast:
West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday.
Temperatures below to well below normal through Monday.
East: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.
Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Western snow. Temperatures near to below normal.
Forecast: Isolated showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday.
Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday, north Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com
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