DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. Another trough is out in the Pacific. The eastern trough will pinwheel northeast into eastern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday, but a piece of the Pacific trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada to keep some semblance of that trough going this week in the Northeast. The Pacific trough will finally push eastward late this week into the West in two pieces, forcing the ridge eastward.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough will continually be reinforced and push pieces of energy through the continent through the end of the month. The ridge will not be strong enough to contain them all, but it will redevelop in the wake of those pieces of energy.

The U.S. and European models are unsure how to bring a system through the country this weekend. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system moving through the West late this week will move into the middle of the country this weekend. It will probably do so in two distinct pieces with one moving through Canada and another moving across the South, but both with scattered showers. The southern portion may take until early next week to move eastward. Temperatures will be very warm ahead of that system. Only slightly milder air will move from the West into the middle of the country behind that system. Another system may move through the country mid-to-late next week with scattered showers.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON…100 AT 2 MILES WEST OF PALA CA

LOW  MON…3 AT PELLSTON MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY…BURLINGTON, VT 0.76 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. Another trough is out in the Pacific. The eastern trough will pinwheel northeast into eastern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday, but a piece of the Pacific trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada to keep some semblance of that trough going this week in the Northeast. The Pacific trough will finally push eastward late this week into the West in two pieces, forcing the ridge eastward. The trough will continually be reinforced and push pieces of energy through the continent through the end of the month. The ridge will not be strong enough to contain them all, but it will redevelop in the wake of those pieces of energy.

The U.S. and European models are unsure how to bring a system through the country this weekend. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system moving through the West late this week will move into the middle of the country this weekend. It will probably do so in two distinct pieces with one moving through Canada and another moving across the South, but both with scattered showers. The southern portion may take until early next week to move eastward. Temperatures will be very warm ahead of that system. Only slightly milder air will move from the West into the middle of the country behind that system. Another system may move through the country mid-to-late next week with scattered showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold air has been replaced by warm air here on Tuesday. A system will move through on Friday and Saturday, but with limited showers. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with several moving through. With temperatures falling to more seasonable readings this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures are rising on Tuesday with above normal temperatures for the rest of the week.

A system will move in this weekend. Models are unsure of its development, but could mean widespread precipitation and strong winds into early next week. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Lake-effect snow added up to some hefty amounts around the Great Lakes over the past couple of days. Cold air will be moving out of western areas on Tuesday and eastern areas on Wednesday, with warmer air replacing it into next week. A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers on Tuesday into Wednesday. Otherwise, the region will be drier until this weekend, as models try to figure out how to develop a system across the middle of the country.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. No significant precipitation is forecast this week, but the pattern may become more active starting next week. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A has settled into central and northern Brazil where showers will continue this week. Another front will move into the country on Wednesday and is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain as well.

One more front will move into southern areas this weekend and the forecast has increased precipitation along it. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil early next week and stalling, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture is still really good across much of the country. Another front will bring showers through on Tuesday and Wednesday, and one more will move through this weekend. The forecast has increased showers with that front, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on less frequent frontal passages, or at least fronts with less rainfall potential. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers went across southern areas this weekend into Monday. Limited showers have also moved through western areas and continue in a couple of waves this week as well. Milder and wetter weather are in the forecast for next week. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers in October improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A system will bring through limited showers over the next couple of days, but not enough to turn around the situation for those areas in a deficit. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored.

The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions are favored for most of the week, but a system moving through eastern areas late this week and weekend could bring scattered showers. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday, well above normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above to well above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, well above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com