DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. Another trough is out in the Pacific. The eastern trough will pinwheel northeast early this week, but a piece of the Pacific trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada to keep some semblance of that trough going this week. The Pacific trough will finally push eastward late this week into the West, forcing the ridge eastward.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough will continually be reinforced and push pieces of energy through the continent through the end of the month. The ridge will not be strong enough to contain them all, but it will redevelop in the wake of those pieces of energy. This western trough and eastern ridge pattern is forecast to continue through the end of November.

The U.S. and European models are unsure how to bring a system through the country this weekend. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system moving through the West late this week will move into the middle of the country this weekend. It will probably do so in two distinct pieces with one moving through Canada and another moving across the South, but both with scattered showers. Temperatures will be very warm ahead of that system. Only slightly below-normal air will move from the West into the middle of the country behind that system early next week. Another system may move through the country mid-to-late next week with limited showers.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN…97 AT CORONA, CA AND INDIO, CA

LOW  SUN…4 BELOW ZERO AT TIOGA, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY…JUNEAU, AK 1.19 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. Another trough is out in the Pacific. The eastern trough will pinwheel northeast early this week, but a piece of the Pacific trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada to keep some semblance of that trough going this week. The Pacific trough will finally push eastward late this week into the West, forcing the ridge eastward. The trough will continually be reinforced and push pieces of energy through the continent through the end of the month. The ridge will not be strong enough to contain them all, but it will redevelop in the wake of those pieces of energy. This western trough and eastern ridge pattern is forecast to continue through the end of November.

The U.S. and European models are unsure how to bring a system through the country this weekend. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system moving through the West late this week will move into the middle of the country this weekend. It will probably do so in two distinct pieces with one moving through Canada and another moving across the South, but both with scattered showers. Temperatures will be very warm ahead of that system. Only slightly below-normal air will move from the West into the middle of the country behind that system early next week. Another system may move through the country mid-to-late next week with limited showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold air moved into the region over the weekend, but is quickly moving out early this week. A system will move in with some showers Friday and Saturday, but with limited showers. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with several moving through. With temperatures falling this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some showers went through Nebraska over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry while cold temperatures descended through the region. Temperatures will quickly rise on Monday night with above normal temperatures this week. A system will move in Friday or more likely this weekend. Models are unsure of its development, but could mean widespread precipitation and strong winds. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system went through on Saturday and has pulled down some significantly cold air, leading to areas of lake-effect snow that will extend through Monday. Temperatures will then quickly rise for the rest of the week, especially across the west. A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Otherwise, the region will be drier until this weekend, as models try to figure out how to develop a system across the middle of the country.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. No significant precipitation is forecast this week, but the pattern may become more active starting this weekend. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved up into the country this weekend and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front is settling into central and northern Brazil where showers will continue this week. Another front will move into the country on Wednesday and is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain as well. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil late this week, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front lifted north out of the country this weekend, bringing through some cooler temperatures but no frost. Soil moisture is still really good across much of the country. Another front will bring showers through on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on less frequent frontal passages, or at least fronts with less rainfall potential. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers went across southern areas this weekend and continue in the southeast early this week as a system leaves.

Limited showers have also moved through western areas and continue in a couple of waves this week as well. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers in October improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A system will bring through limited showers early this week, but not enough to turn around the situation for those areas in a deficit. Temperatures are still above normal this week, delaying dormancy for northern areas that should be going dormant this time of year.

With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Limited showers went through eastern areas over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. Drier conditions are favored for most of the week, but a system moving through eastern areas late this week could bring scattered showers. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling well below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Lake-effect snow Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures well below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, well above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com