Dallas Fed: Executives See WTI at $63 in 2025 Amid Glut

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) — Most executives from nearly 139 oil and gas firms expect the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price to end 2025 at $63 bbl, with the  range of estimates at $50 bbl to $80 bbl, amid concerns of global oil oversupply.

The 139 executives responding to the survey also projected an end-year price for Henry Hub natural gas at $3.30/MMBtu, below the $3.94/MMBtu average during the survey period, which ran from September 10 to September 18.

The oil and gas production index tracked by the survey declined slightly in the third quarter, the executives said.  The oil production index remained negative and was relatively unchanged at -8.6 while the natural gas production index was relatively unchanged at -3.2.

The company outlook index also fell, from -6.4 in the second quarter to -17.6, suggesting pessimism among the firms surveyed. 

Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index remained elevated, even as it edged lower from 47.1 to 44.6.

“There are a variety of issues affecting our business,” an executive told the survey. “First, excess in the global oil market is restraining oil prices near term. Second, there is continued uncertainty from OPEC+ unwinding production cuts. Third, trade and tariff changes and the resulting geopolitical tensions.”

Another lamented that the Trump administration’s desire for pricing under $50 bbl to keep in check inflation faced by American households caused by tariffs the administration itself had imposed on U.S. trading partners. 

“The administration is pushing for $40 per barrel crude oil, and with tariffs on foreign tubular goods, [input] prices are up, and drilling is going to disappear,” the executive added. “The oil industry is once again going to lose valuable employees.”