Crude Down, Cotton Market Down

The cotton market is materially lower today, as are other row crops amid the further price deterioration of the energy complex. Rumors and hopes continue to fly that the U.S. and Iran are very close to a peace deal. Additionally, the cotton market has reached the calendar window known for ushering in a seasonal top.

USDA just issued its weekly export sales data with the following numbers:

“Net sales of Upland totaling 123,300 RB for 2025/2026 were down 24 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior four-week average. Increases primarily for Pakistan (38,800 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), India (27,200 RB), Vietnam (18,800 RB, including 1,900 RB switched from South Korea and decreases of 1,200 RB), Indonesia (14,400 RB, including 9,700 RB switched from Vietnam), and Bangladesh (9,100 RB, including decreases of 1,000 RB), were offset by reductions for South Korea (1,900 RB). Net sales of 48,400 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Guatemala (35,200 RB) and Indonesia (19,000 RB), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (5,800 RB). Exports of 327,500 RB were down 15 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (135,000 RB), Bangladesh (29,600 RB), Pakistan (29,100 RB), Turkey (27,700 RB), and China (20,400 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 11,500 RB for 2025/2026 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for India (6,700 RB), Egypt (1,800 RB), Italy (800 RB), Thailand (600 RB), and Pakistan (600 RB). Total net sales of 1,300 RB for 2026/2027 were for Egypt. Exports of 14,800 RB were down 17 percent from the previous week, but up 52 percent from the prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (8,400 RB), India (2,700 RB), China (2,200 RB), Bangladesh (500 RB), and Colombia (400 RB).”

Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders information. Last week, the report showed that the managed-money funds bought some 3,800 positions, strengthening their net-long carry to 38,355 contracts.

In general terms, most of the U.S. Cotton Belt remains in a severe drought situation. However, some spotty relief has been emerging. Currently, rains are forecasted for the U.S. Delta and the Southeast. Specifically, the weather maps for Thursday and Friday show rain/thunderstorms over the southeastern quadrant of Texas, southern Delta and most of the Southeastern U.S.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 82.30 cents and 81.80 cents, with resistance around 85.00 cents and 85.25 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 19,637 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.