Cotton Struggles to Rally

The cotton market is slightly lower Tuesday as it still feels “the burn” of Monday’s strong early showing and then subsequent spill to unchanged levels. There was some grower fixation selling, as well as technical shorting by certain speculators. Traders now will assess this week’s inflation numbers as well as fresh export sales data.

USDA issued its Crop Progress report Monday afternoon. The data showed 44% of the U.S. cotton crop rated good to excellent. That is lower than the previous reading of 46%. Last year, the 2025 crop was rated 54% at this time, while the five-year average for this date is 48%. Currently, Texas is 30% good-excellent, off from the prior 36% last week. Her five-year average is 35%. Still, the 2026 crop is moving at a normal pace with 60% of fields squaring as compared to the five-year average rates of 59%.

Today at 8:30 a.m. EDT, traders will see the new monthly CPI, or consumer inflation. Then on Wednesday, the PPI, or wholesale inflation, will be released. Their combined results will likely influence the new Federal Reserve’s insights on interest rates later this month. 

Crude oil prices are sharply higher Tuesday, trading above the $80 mark amid fresh attacks on Iran by U.S. forces. The U.S. is set to reimpose her naval blockade against Iran starting at 4 p.m. EDT. The president said the U.S. will protect traffic in Hormuz but demanded reimbursement equivalent to 20% of all cargo shipped. The decision to reimpose the blockade comes after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend.

Chart support for December cotton stands at 80.20 cents and 79.20 cents, with resistance around 83.00 cents and 83.50 cents. Tuesday morning’s estimated volume is 9,460 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.