Cotton “Sees “Wednesday Regrouping”
After its consolidation over the past few sessions, the cotton market is attempting to push higher today. It's likely being "egged-on" by the positive action of the energy, the metals, and a weaker U.S. Dollar. Cotton traders are still awaiting the outcome of various reports due later this week, involving exports, inflation, supply-demand, and C-O-T data.
The USDA issued its weekly crop progress numbers yesterday. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 34% of the U.S. cotton crop was rated good/excellent, which was down from 39% the previous week, and 54% from a year ago. The five-year average for this date stands at 44% good/excellent. Of the top 5 producing states, Mississippi had declined the most at 52% G/E, down from 63% last week and a five-year average of 58%. The report also showed 40% of the U.S. crop had bolls open, up from 29% the previous week and 38% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 38%.
On Thursday, new inflation data via the PPI (a measure of wholesale costs of goods and services) will be released. It is forecasted to show a rise of 0.4%. Then on Sept. 11 the CPI (consumer inflation) will be issued. The recent August jobs report has traders thinking the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week from Sept. 15-16.
Weekly exports-sales are delayed until Sept. 11 due to the observance of the Labor Day holiday. Last week saw sales of 27,525 bales for the 2026/2027 marketing year. That amount was the lowest since cancellations at the end of the 2023/24 marketing year.
Also on Sept. 11, the USDA will release its monthly supply-demand update. Last month, the 2026 crop was pegged at 13.61 million bales, down 90,000, with ending stock at 4.00 million versus the previous 4.10. The data will be out at noon eastern.
Lastly on Sept. 11, at 3:30pm, the CFTC will update its C-O-T numbers. The last report had the managed-money funds as net-buyers of 12,000 positions. Their action swelled the overall long carry to 107,936 contracts. Their record carry was 108,788 contracts.
For today close-in support for December Cotton stands at 8550 and 8500, with resistance around 8800 and 8860. This morning’s estimated volume is 15,205 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.
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