Cotton Ricochets Higher Wednesday

After its late-session pummeling, the cotton market is moderately higher Wednesday. Tuesday’s supply-demand update was superficially positive, but still lacked reality. Traders will await Thursday’s export sales numbers and then the results of the Trump/Xi meeting on Thursday/Friday.

Highlights from Tuesday’s May WASDE include 2026-27 production at 13.30 million bales versus an average trade expectation 13.76 million (range 13.00 million to 14.51 million), versus the 13.90 million seen in 2025-26. Plantings were forecast at 9.64 million acres versus 9.28 million as per the May Prospective Plantings report, but the abandonment rate was estimated at 23.4%, which is down from 25.6% in 2025-26 but is close to the 10-year average of 23.5%. Exports were 12.30 million bales versus 12.27 million, and ending stocks were 3.90 million bales versus 4.20 million expected and compared to the 4.40 million of 2025-26 season.

On Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, USDA will release its latest export sales numbers. Last week saw net sales of 123,000 bales, off some 24% weekly and shipments of 327,000 bales, down 15% week-over-week.

Starting Thursday, the Trump/Xi trade meeting will take place in Beijing. The two sides have much to discuss including tariffs, Taiwan, Iran, rare earths, and U.S. agricultural purchases. Most analysts have low expectations.

Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders numbers. Last week, the managed-money funds bought some 12,000 positions, lifting their net-long carry to 51,184 contracts. The all-time record bullish record stands at 108,788 contracts.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 85.25 cents and 84.75 cents, with resistance around 88.00 cents and 88.50 cents. Wednesday morning’s estimated volume is 15,250 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.