Cotton Market Quiet Ahead of ‘Storm’

The cotton market is essentially unchanged this morning. Traders are somewhat sidelined awaiting the outcome of the 48-hour peace deal deadline given by the U.S. to Iran. Failure to respond could result in new weekend attacks. Traders are also keen on today’s jobs report, the CFTC update, next week’s supply-demand data and the Trump/Xi trade meeting.

This morning, the Labor Department will issue its monthly jobs report. The tally is expected to show that some 55,000 new non-farm jobs were created last month. The news is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Later today, at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders information. Last week, the report showed that the managed-money funds bought some 3,800 positions, strengthening their net-long carry to 38,355 contracts.

Next week, traders will see new crop progress numbers on Monday, and an updated U.S. Drought Monitor, the May supply-demand report on Tuesday, and the outcome of the Trump/Xi trade meeting on Wednesday/Thursday.

The 6- to 10-day forecast (May 13-17) shows above to much-above temperatures for Texas and the Southwest, but normal reading for the U.S. Delta and the Southeast. Rainwise, Texas has slightly above-normal chances, with the rest of the Cotton Belt showing only normal opportunities.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 81.80 cents and 81.00 cents, with resistance around 84.25 cents and 85.25 cents. Friday morning’s estimated volume is 15,321 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.