Cotton Lower on Exports Aftermath

With WTI crude oil correcting (down) and Thursday’s weekly export sales being unenthusiastic, the cotton market is materially lower Friday morning. Thursday saw the fiber market trade up as it was somewhat bird-dogging the energies and the grains. But its most basic fundamental — demand — continues to un-inspire the ICE futures. 

Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders information. Last week saw the managed-money funds buying in some 10,500 positions, further enhancing their net-long carry to 49,688 contracts.

Monday, USDA will issue fresh crop condition numbers. Of late, the good-to-excellent readings have been moving two-sided. The highest reading was 54%, followed by a couple of weeks of 44%; but Monday past was 45%. The number will be out at 4 p.m. EDT.

President Trump said Thursday that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the United States on Sept. 24. Xi’s visit comes after the pair met during Trump’s official trip to China earlier this year. Among the topics that will likely be discussed are trade, agricultural exports, artificial intelligence, Iran, and perhaps Taiwan. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi have already been discussing the various areas of cooperation for a very positive visit.

As mentioned, WTI crude oil is off by 3% Friday, yet remains on track for a weekly jump of over 10% as the U.S./Iran escalates. Overnight, the U.S. Central Command completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities. President Trump is mulling an even more massive military attack on Iran “to finish the job.”

Chart support for December cotton stands at 79.80 cents and 79.10 cents, with resistance around 82.10 cents and 83.00 cents. Friday morning’s estimated volume is 13,205 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.