Cotton Higher, But Awaits Data

The cotton market is materially higher Thursday morning as it somewhat birddogs the energy complex. Wednesday saw crude oil spike to new highs amid the on-going U.S./Iran war. Also, traders are awaiting Thursday’s export sales report and Friday’s CFTC update for further direction.

USDA just released its weekly export sales update with the following numbers:

“Net sales of Upland totaling 162,900 RB for 2025/2026 were up 36 percent from the previous week, but down 33 percent from the prior four-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (55,600 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from China, 300 RB switched from Japan, and decreases of 8,900 RB), Pakistan (33,300 RB, including 400 RB switched from Switzerland and decreases of 900 RB), Honduras (29,700 RB, including decreases of 3,900 RB), Bangladesh (20,900 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), and India (9,800 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), were offset by reductions for China (4,300 RB), Japan (1,000 RB), Ecuador (600 RB), and Switzerland (400 RB). Net sales of 105,700 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Turkey (66,100 RB), China (22,000 RB), Guatemala (18,000 RB), Honduras (10,500 RB), and Pakistan (5,700 RB), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (16,700 RB). Exports of 384,600 RB were up 30 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (155,000 RB), Pakistan (38,500 RB), Turkey (37,300 RB), India (34,500 RB), and Bangladesh (26,100 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 21,900 RB for 2025/2026 were down 40 percent from the previous week, but up 35 percent from the prior four-week average.  Increases were primarily for India (7,200 RB), Vietnam (4,800 RB, including 100 RB switched from Japan), China (2,600 RB), Egypt (2,200 RB), and Costa Rica (1,700 RB). Net sales of 11,500 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for India (6,200 RB) and Egypt (5,300 RB). Exports of 17,800 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (9,100 RB), China (4,900 RB), Pakistan (1,700 RB), Peru (1,700 RB), and Turkey (300 RB).”

Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, although it was not a unanimous vote. In fact, the Board of Governors was divided 8 to 4 in maintaining rates. It was the greatest division since October 1992. The new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to be at the central bank’s helm for the June Meeting.

Spot May contract is in delivery. Thursday there were zero notices issued. Thus far, 178 notices have been issued. May’s delivery period runs through May 6.

Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders information. Last week, the report showed the managed-money funds bought some 17,000 positions, strengthening their net-long carry to 34,464 contracts.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 79.00 cents and 78.60 cents, with resistance around 82.00 cents and 82.50 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 33,001 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.