Cotton Creeps Along Friday, Directionless

The cotton market traded with little direction conviction on Friday. Traders saw a numb supply-demand report Thursday, but better exports sales. Friday afternoon the CFTC will issue its data and Monday will bring new Crop Progress data. Still, the overarching emotional factor is whether the U.S./Iran War has concluded.

Friday morning’s U.S. Drought Monitor indicates the U.S. cotton area stands at 79% drought. While that reading is historically high, it is lower than its peak of 98% drought of three weeks ago. 

Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders numbers. Last week, the already net-long funds sold some 1,800 positions, reducing their bullish carry to 52,402 contracts.

Next week, USDA will issue its Crop Progress report on Monday at 4 p.m. EDT. Last week’s data showed the U.S. cotton crop was rated 53% good to excellent, while the plantings were 77% complete. That pace equaled the five-year average.

The U.S. dollar is essentially unchanged Friday, with focus on U.S./Iran and next week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Fed will be under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh. The central bank will announce any policy changes Wednesday.

For Friday, July closed at 72.94 cents, up 45 points; December closed at 76.42 cents, plus 6; and March 2027 finished at 77.64 cents, up 4 points. Friday’s estimated volume was 82,300 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com