Chronology: Oil Price Action Amid U.S.-Iran Nuclear Crisis

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) — The following is a chronological timeline of the start and end of nuclear talks this year between the U.S. and Iran and the subsequent military escalation that has driven global crude benchmarks to 14-month peaks:

• Feb. 17, 2026: Indirect nuclear talks in Geneva conclude without a deal. Markets begin pricing in a “diplomatic failure” premium as rhetoric from both Washington and Tehran sharpens.
  • Brent: $68.40 bbl | WTI: $63.10 bbl
• Feb. 24, 2026: Tensions spike as a U.S. Navy fighter shoots down an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln. Prices edge higher on the increased military footprint and a breakdown in earlier “guiding principles.”
  • Brent: $70.15 bbl | WTI: $65.40 bbl
• Feb. 26, 2026: A third round of talks in Geneva ends in a stalemate over uranium enrichment. Crude futures whipsaw as the U.S. sets a one-week deadline for a deal while assembling a massive naval force.
  • Brent: $72.50 bbl | WTI: $67.80 bbl
• Feb. 27, 2026: President Trump expresses dissatisfaction with negotiations, signaling potential military action. The market settles with a heightened risk-on sentiment, closing the week at multi-month highs.
  • Brent: $73.10 bbl | WTI: $67.00 bbl
• Feb. 28, 2026 (Saturday): “Operation Epic Fury” commences. U.S.-Israel air strikes decapitate Iranian leadership and target over 500 military and nuclear sites across the country.
  • Market Status: Weekend Close
• March 1, 2026 (Sunday): Iran retaliates with drone and missile strikes on Gulf hubs. OPEC+ agrees to a 206,000 bpd production hike for April to stabilize the global supply chain.
  • Market Status: Weekend Close
• March 2, 2026 (Monday Opening): Crude benchmarks surge at the open as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ceases almost entirely. Brent and WTI both surged 12% or more at the session highs.
  • Brent: $82.37 bbl (14-month peak) | WTI: $75.33 bbl (nine-month peak)
• March 2, 2026 (Monday Session): Prices consolidate as traders weigh the modest OPEC+ hike against the risk of a sustained Hormuz blockade.
  • Brent: $75.75 bbl (session low) | WTI: $69.20 bbl (session low)