Below Average Temperatures Continue

General Overview: AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US, WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A BROAD WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPREADS EASTWARD.

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EAST: A low pressure system tracking across the Ohio Valley on Friday will bring a broad swath of rain to the region. High pressure situated offshore will keep conditions relatively quiet along the immediate Mid-Atlantic coastline initially, but that will change quickly as the pattern evolves.

By Saturday, a cold front sweeping through the eastern United States will push the precipitation shield southward and eastward. Rain and thunderstorms will become widespread from the Southeast through the Carolina, while rain continues to affect the Great Lakes and portions of the interior Northeast.

By Sunday, a strengthening low pressure system will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This low will draw a cold front southwestward through the Southeast while a warm front extends offshore to the east. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will sweep across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, while rain continues across the interior Northeast and New England. An occluded front pushing through the far Northeast will further enhance precipitation in that region.

By Monday, the coastal low will have moved well offshore, dragging its cold front to the southeast. Rain and thunderstorms will continue along the Gulf Coast and into the Florida Peninsula, with rain lingering across portions of the Northeast. High pressure building into the Great Lakes will bring a drying trend to much of the interior East.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1–3: Temperatures will be running near to slightly below normal across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic early in the period. Some pockets of below-normal readings are noted across the Great Lakes region, while portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast will be near normal to slightly above normal.

– Days 4–6: A gradual moderation is expected across the East, with temperatures trending closer to or slightly above normal across the Southeast. The Great Lakes and interior Northeast will see a return toward near-normal readings, though some lingering below-normal anomalies are possible across the northern tier through Day 6.

– Days 7–10: Below-normal temperatures become more pronounced across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the Days 7–10 period, with anomalies running several degrees below average. The Northeast sees a similar trend, with below-normal readings spreading from the Great Lakes southward through the Tennessee Valley and into the Deep South.

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CENTRAL: A low pressure system over the Northern Plains on Friday will generate rain showers across portions of the north-central region. Thunderstorms will be ongoing across the South Central region and into the lower Mississippi Valley, fueled by a cold front draped from the central Plains southwestward. This frontal boundary will focus heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity across the South Central states, where moisture streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico will enhance rainfall totals.

By Saturday, the cold front will have progressed eastward, but a new low pressure center developing over the Central Plains will keep the threat for rain and thunderstorms alive from the Central Plains southward through the South Central states. Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread from the Central Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley, with the most active convection expected across the Gulf Coast region. Rain will also push into portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest ahead of the advancing frontal boundary.

By Sunday, the cold front will have swept through much of the Central region, with thunderstorms continuing across the South Central states and Gulf Coast. The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will see a drying trend behind the frontal passage. By Monday, a new low pressure system developing over the Central and Northern Plains will bring another round of rain and thunderstorms to portions of the region.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1–3: Temperatures across the Central region will be significantly below normal, particularly across the Central and Southern Plains, where anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below average are expected early in the period. The North Central states will also be well below normal. Some above-normal readings are noted across portions of the South Central region.

– Days 4–6: The below-normal temperature anomalies will shift northward, focusing on the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, while the Central and Southern Plains begin to moderate back toward or above normal. By Day 6, above-normal temperatures will be expanding across the Central Plains and into the South Central region.

– Days 7–10: A broad warming trend will take hold across the Central region, with above-normal temperatures spreading from the Central Plains southward through the South Central states. The Northern Plains will remain near to slightly above normal, while the Upper Midwest may still see some near-normal to slightly below-normal readings early in this window before warming.

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WEST: The western United States will be relatively quiet in terms of active weather systems during the early part of the period, though scattered precipitation will be noted across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Intermountain West. Snow showers are possible at higher elevations across the Northwest and northern Rockies on Friday, with isolated showers continuing through the weekend. A few thunderstorms may develop across the Desert Southwest and southern portions of the region as moisture interacts with daytime heating.

By the weekend and into early next week, the West will remain largely dry with a gradual warming trend taking hold. A low pressure system over the Southwest will bring some rain and thunderstorm activity to that area, but widespread precipitation is not expected across most of the West during this period.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1–3: The Pacific Northwest will be running above normal by several degrees during the early part of the period, with anomalies of 6 to locally 12 degrees above average. The Intermountain West and Southwest will be near to slightly above normal, while portions of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains will be near normal.

– Days 4–6: Above-normal temperatures will expand significantly across the West, with the Southwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West all running well above normal. Anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above average are expected across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin by Days 5–6. The Pacific Northwest will remain above normal as well.

– Days 7–10: The above-normal temperature pattern will persist and even intensify across the West through the end of the period. The Southwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West will continue to see anomalies well above normal, with some of the largest departures — exceeding 12 degrees above average — centered over the Great Basin and portions of the Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will also remain above normal, though anomalies will be somewhat less extreme than areas to the south and east.

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TROPICAL: The Atlantic basin and the Eastern Pacific basin are both quiet at this time, with no tropical cyclone activity anticipated over the next seven days.