Above Normal Temperatures For Most
Temperatures will be above normal for most area with temperatures running 2-10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will be below normal across eastern areas of Oregon and eastern areas of Wyoming.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING DAYS. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE EAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 1, SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY DAY 2. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EAST:
A cold front extending from a low pressure center across the central Plains into the Ohio Valley region is producing rain and thunderstorms across portions of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday. Rain is also occurring along and ahead of a cold front pushing off the Southeast coast, with additional thunderstorm activity noted across the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast. By Saturday evening, the cold front will have pushed into the Northeast and Great Lakes, bringing rain and thunderstorms to those areas, while a broad area of rain and thunderstorms continues across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. A low pressure system will be developing along the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday evening, with a cold front extending westward and a warm front pushing northward, generating rain and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic northward through the Northeast and into New England. Thunderstorm activity will also continue across the Tennessee Valley and into the Southeast and Gulf Coast region through Sunday. By Monday, a cold front will be pushing offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, but rain and thunderstorms will continue to be widespread from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes southward through the Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and along the Gulf Coast, with additional rain extending into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be running well above normal across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Northeast, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal in some areas. The northern portions of the Northeast will be closer to or slightly below normal on Day 3.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will persist across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and into the Carolinas, with the greatest anomalies — 6 to 12 or more degrees above normal — centered over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The far northern Northeast will trend slightly below normal on Day 4 before returning closer to normal by Days 5-6.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will continue across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast, though anomalies will gradually moderate. Conditions will trend toward near-normal across much of the Northeast and northern New England by the end of the period.
CENTRAL:
Multiple low pressure systems are tracking across the central and northern Plains on Friday, generating widespread rain and thunderstorms from the central Plains northward through the Dakotas and into Montana and Wyoming. A significant heavy rain and flash flooding threat is focused across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska on Day 1, with that threat shifting eastward into Minnesota and Wisconsin by Day 2 as a low pressure system tracks into the upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread across the central and northern Plains, the Midwest, and into the western Great Lakes through the weekend. By Saturday evening, rain and thunderstorm coverage will extend broadly from the northern Plains southward through the central Plains and into the western Gulf Coast region. On Sunday, rain and thunderstorms will continue across the northern and central Plains, with activity extending southward into Texas and the western Gulf Coast. By Monday, rain and thunderstorm activity will be focused from the central Plains eastward through the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes, with additional activity across portions of Texas and the western Gulf Coast.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the central Plains, including Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and surrounding areas, will be running significantly above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal. Portions of the northern Plains will be near to slightly below normal on Day 1, with some areas of Montana and the Dakotas running 3 to 6 degrees below normal early in the period before trending closer to normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will persist across the central Plains and into the Midwest, with anomalies of 6 to 12 or more degrees above normal continuing across Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and neighboring states. The northern Plains will be near normal through this period.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will continue across the central Plains and Midwest, though anomalies will gradually moderate. Much of the northern Plains will remain near normal, while the southern Plains will continue to see readings modestly above normal.
WEST:
Multiple low pressure systems are present across the Intermountain West and Pacific Coast region on Friday, generating widespread rain and thunderstorm activity from the Pacific Northwest southward through the Great Basin and into the Southwest. A heavy rain and flash flooding threat is noted across portions of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico on Day 1. Rain and thunderstorm activity will continue broadly across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Basin, and into the Southwest through the weekend. By Saturday evening, a low pressure system will be positioned off the California coast, with rain and thunderstorm activity continuing across the Pacific Northwest and portions of the northern Rockies. Activity across the Southwest and Great Basin will gradually diminish through the weekend and into early next week, with the West becoming generally quieter by Monday.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Pacific Northwest will be running modestly above normal, particularly across Washington and Oregon. Portions of the northern Rockies will see near to slightly below normal temperatures on Day 1. The Southwest will be near to slightly above normal. Parts of California will be slightly below normal early in the period.
-Days 4-6: The Pacific Northwest will continue to see modestly above-normal temperatures. The remainder of the West will be near normal to slightly above normal, with only modest anomalies across the Southwest and Great Basin.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will become more widespread across the West, with portions of the Pacific Northwest, California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest all trending modestly above normal. Most areas will see anomalies in the range of 3 to 6 degrees above normal, with near-normal conditions across the interior portions of the Intermountain West.
TROPICAL:
In the Atlantic basin, a disturbance is being monitored over the central Atlantic, roughly between 25 and 35 degrees north latitude, with a 40 to 60 percent chance of development into a named storm over the next seven days. No active named storms are present in the Atlantic at this time.
In the eastern Pacific basin, two disturbances are being monitored. One is located near 115 degrees west longitude around 10 to 15 degrees north latitude, with a greater than 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days. A second disturbance is located farther west near 130 degrees west longitude at similar latitudes, with a 40 to 60 percent chance of development. Neither disturbance currently poses a threat to land areas, but interests across Mexico and Central America should monitor the progress of the higher-probability eastern Pacific system.