A WET AND ACTIVE MARCH AHEAD

Meteorological winter ends at the end of February and meteorological spring begins in March. Average temperatures warm up at an accelerated pace. Highs climb into the 30s and 40s in the north, with some 50s occurring by late month. Average highs in the South soar into the 60s and 70s, with some 80s in the Desert Southwest, Deep South Texas, and Florida. Daylight hours increase at their fastest pace for most with 11-13 hours of daylight across the country.

A ridge in the West and a trough in the East carried the pattern over the first ten days of February. This kept temperatures persistently below normal in the East to begin the month with the coldest anomalies targeting the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. Abundant warm anomalies were in place across the West during the first 7-10 days of February. The core of this warmth slid eastward towards the Central US late in the first week of February and largely persisted through the second and third weeks of the month. Temperatures from the Rockies through the Central US routinely reached 15-25 degrees above normal during this stretch. The warmup was more gradual across the Southeast during mid-February, while the Northeast saw temperatures become near to slightly below normal for the period. A trough digging into the West did provide a brief colder stretch during the third week of February before a warmer pattern returned late in the month. This late month warmup in the West allowed for colder air to filter across the Central/Eastern US during the final week of February, though some warmer readings did return near the tail end of the month across the South and the Midwest. The trough that lasted through much of February in the East promoted a drier overall pattern across the Central/Eastern US. This particularly was the case across the Southeast, where drought development was enhanced throughout the month. One section of the US that did see an increase in rain and mountain snow during much of February was across Oregon into Northern California, as multiple systems crashed into the Pacific Coast. Severe weather was largely limited to two events, with one system spawning several tornadoes across the Lower Mississippi Valley on February 14 and another system producing a few tornadoes across Illinois and Indiana on February 19. This system also dropped heavy snow across the Upper Mississippi Valley. The more potent February snowstorm targeted the Northeast over February 22-23. This produced a swath of 12-24″ snowfall reports from Philadelphia to Boston with higher totals within that band. Providence sat in the heart of this band and recorded 37.9 inches of snow with the event which smashed the previous all-time record event of 28.6 inches set in 1978.

One more quick cold shot will sweep across the Midwest through much of the East over the first 2-3 days of March. A substantial pattern change will immediately occur after this. Tropical forcing will become more amplified over the western Pacific Ocean. A ridge will become established across the East on account of this, producing above to well above normal temperatures across much of the Central/Eastern US. The core of this warmth will shift from the Ohio Valley and the South during the latter half of week one towards the northeast quadrant of the US during week two. A few record highs may be threatened. This will contrast with a trough across the West. Despite the trough overhead, readings in the West should trend closer to seasonable as a +EPO trough near Alaska will keep the airmass Pacific-based as opposed to Arctic-based. The Central US should see the warm pattern ease and trend closer to normal later in week two. Cold risks may increase during the third week of March across the northern tier of the US, especially the Upper Midwest, as the +EPO trough should transition over to a -EPO ridge near Alaska. However, as tropical forcing is expected to remain over the western Pacific, this cold potential will clash against a ridge over the Southeast that should maintain the warm pattern across the South. Temperatures should become more volatile across the Midwest and the Northeast as a result moving into the second half of March. Tropical forcing should begin to shift across the Pacific Ocean during the final week of March. This will provide an opportunity for the Southeast ridge to relent. This should lead to late March having the highest potential for below normal temperatures to be more persistent across the Midwest as well as providing a gateway for colder air to extend through the South. Modest warm anomalies may return to the West Coast late in the month.

The clash between the trough in the West and ridging in the East will help prime an active pattern across the Central/Eastern US through much of the first 2-3 weeks of March. The heaviest and most organized of this rain is likely to target North Texas through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and the Great Lakes. This should chip away at ongoing drought conditions to some extent and could also produce localized flash flood concerns. After a quieter start to 2026, this should also kick the severe storm season into a higher gear, particularly from the Arklatex Region towards the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. The storm threat should likely peak during the second week of March and into the early stages of week three. The ridge impacting the Southeast will push back on the bulk of these rain and storms from penetrating the Gulf Coast, but a few storms will reach the region on occasion. The northern edge of these systems could provide wintry precipitation to the Midwest/Northeast during week one, but the milder pattern should reduce these winter risks by mid-March across the Northeast. There still could be snow chances into mid-March across the Midwest, particularly over the Northern Plains. An occasional system or two could also produce rain and mountain snow across the Northwest into the Rockies while drier than normal conditions are favored in California and the Desert Southwest. With the ridge in the Southeast favored to weaken late in March, this could increase the risk of fronts to dig further through the Gulf Coast, increasing the storm threat for the Gulf Coast into Florida. There will be snow risks across the Midwest that could extend further south towards the Central Plains and/or Ohio Valley with this setup.