USDA Crop Production 05/12
05/12/2026 | 10:59 am CDT USDA Crop Production 05/12
Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737
Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Winter Wheat Production Down 25 Percent from 2025
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent
from 2025. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 47.6 bushels
per acre, down 7.3 bushels from last year's average yield of 54.9 bushels per
acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 22.0 million
acres, down 14 percent from last year.
Hard Red Winter production, at 515 million bushels, is down 36 percent from a
year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 301 million bushels, is down 15 percent from
2025. White Winter, at 232 million bushels, is down 5 percent from last year.
Of the White Winter production, 8.03 million bushels are Hard White and
224 million bushels are Soft White.
This report was approved on May 12, 2026.
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Justin Benavidez
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Lance Honig
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States:
2025 and Forecasted May 1, 2026
================================================================================
Area harvested Yield per acre Production
State
2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026
================================================================================
(1,000 acres) (bushels) (1,000 bushels)
AR 70 50 57.0 55.0 3,990 2,750
CA 110 110 86.0 65.0 9,460 7,150
CO 1,870 1,600 38.0 21.0 71,060 33,600
ID 720 720 99.0 97.0 71,280 69,840
IL 700 620 88.0 84.0 61,600 52,080
IN 240 230 89.0 85.0 21,360 19,550
KS 6,800 5,800 51.0 37.0 346,800 214,600
KY 330 285 81.0 79.0 26,730 22,515
MD 160 130 79.0 78.0 12,640 10,140
MI 490 475 90.0 90.0 44,100 42,750
MO 460 430 80.0 73.0 36,800 31,390
MT 2,120 1,750 47.0 47.0 99,640 82,250
NE 805 580 47.0 28.0 37,835 16,240
NC 270 245 60.0 44.0 16,200 10,780
OH 530 480 86.0 85.0 45,580 40,800
OK 2,800 2,300 38.0 28.0 106,400 64,400
OR 740 740 71.0 67.0 52,540 49,580
PA 185 195 72.0 77.0 13,320 15,015
SD 630 530 50.0 48.0 31,500 25,440
TN 265 190 74.0 74.0 19,610 14,060
TX 2,300 1,700 37.0 28.0 85,100 47,600
VA 70 60 66.0 53.0 4,620 3,180
WA 1,790 1,800 68.0 67.0 121,720 120,600
WI 250 240 76.0 75.0 19,000 18,000
OtrSt 1/ 803 755 53.1 44.0 42,669 33,200
US 25,508 22,015 54.9 47.6 1,401,554 1,047,510
================================================================================
1/ Other States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Mississippi, New Mexico,
New York, North Dakota, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State
level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2026 Summary" report.
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States:
2025 and Forecasted May 1, 2026
[Area harvested for the United States and remaining States will be published in
the Acreage" report released June 2026. Yield and production will be published
in the "Crop Production" report released July 2026. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]"
================================================================================
Area harvested Yield per acre Production
State
2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026
================================================================================
(1,000 acres) (bushels) (1,000 bushels)
AZ 49 64 117.0 100.0 5,733 6,400
CA 14 15 125.0 126.0 1,750 1,890
MT 850 30.0 25,500
ND 1,210 44.0 53,240
US 2,123 40.6 86,223
================================================================================
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Wheat Production by Class - United States: 2025 and Forecasted May 1, 2026
[Wheat class estimates are based on the latest available data including both
surveys and administrative data. The previous end-of-year season class
percentages are used throughout the forecast season for States that do not have
survey or administrative data available. Blank data cells indicate estimation
period has not yet begun]
================================================================================
Crop 2025 2026
================================================================================
(1,000 bushels)
Winter
Hard red 804,443 514,779
Soft red 352,916 300,862
Hard white 14,196 8,029
Soft white 229,999 223,840
Spring
Hard red 458,347
Hard white 9,568
Soft white 28,845
Durum 86,223
Total 1,984,537
================================================================================
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: December 1 and May 1, 2024-2026
================================================================================
Dec 1 May 1
State
2024 2025 2026
================================================================================
(1,000 tons)
AL 1,330 1,300 210 240
AZ 325 200 30 30
AR 1,650 2,000 330 380
CA 1,400 1,600 350 340
CO 1,890 1,900 650 440
CT 43 39 8 2
DE 9 10 2 2
FL 420 390 65 60
GA 740 700 190 160
ID 2,200 1,900 440 380
IL 1,000 1,100 290 320
IN 820 1,000 170 245
IA 2,830 2,760 750 690
KS 3,300 3,600 900 1,530
KY 3,650 3,450 800 1,100
LA 700 600 140 150
ME 106 135 38 40
MD 315 300 65 50
MA 43 42 12 14
MI 1,100 1,000 320 365
MN 2,550 2,830 960 820
MS 1,000 920 180 190
MO 4,800 5,100 1,500 1,650
MT 3,800 3,550 1,440 1,050
NE 4,300 3,500 1,750 1,550
NV 650 645 160 230
NH 34 33 9 5
NJ 75 90 11 15
NM 680 290 50 75
NY 1,170 1,190 550 360
NC 850 690 175 190
ND 3,550 4,200 1,130 1,270
OH 1,100 1,450 160 350
OK 4,800 5,600 1,200 1,650
OR 1,600 1,400 260 225
PA 1,530 1,420 355 275
RI 4 4 1 1
SC 330 360 90 90
SD 5,600 5,400 2,240 1,950
TN 2,570 2,720 430 595
TX 7,600 7,800 3,000 2,000
UT 1,350 1,150 630 370
VT 140 148 35 33
VA 1,600 1,820 280 430
WA 1,100 1,100 220 160
WV 680 780 85 215
WI 2,900 2,300 1,040 680
WY 1,300 1,150 390 320
US 81,534 81,666 24,091 23,287
================================================================================
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Peach Production by Type - California: 2025 and Forecasted May 1, 2026
================================================================================
Total production
Type
2025 2026
================================================================================
(tons)
Freestone 320,000 310,000
Clingstone 212,000 170,000
Total 532,000 480,000
================================================================================
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Almonds Bearing Acreage, Yield, and Production - State and United States: 2025
and Forecasted May 1, 2026
================================================================================
Bearing acreage Yield per acre Total production (shelled basis)
State
2025 2026 2025 2026 2025 2026
================================================================================
(acres) (pounds) (1,000 pounds)
CA 1,400,000 1,390,000 1,940 1,940 2,715,000 2,700,000
US 1,400,000 1,390,000 1,940 1,940 2,715,000 2,700,000
================================================================================
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Cotton Area Planted, Harvested, and Yield by Type - States and United States:
2024 and 2025
================================================================================
Area planted Area harvested Yield per acre
Type and State
2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025
================================================================================
(1,000 acres) (pounds)
Upland
AL 400.0 290.0 396.0 285.0 816 948
AZ 96.0 87.0 95.0 86.0 1,299 1,429
AR 650.0 520.0 640.0 515.0 1,341 1,239
CA 22.0 18.0 21.7 17.9 1,659 2,199
FL 85.0 61.0 82.0 60.0 697 880
GA 1,100.0 835.0 1,080.0 825.0 858 1,033
KS 131.0 102.0 124.0 77.0 778 966
LA 155.0 90.0 148.0 80.0 1,070 1,350
MS 520.0 330.0 515.0 325.0 1,157 1,167
MO 400.0 355.0 380.0 340.0 1,320 1,084
NM 42.0 30.0 28.0 24.0 686 780
NC 410.0 285.0 400.0 275.0 940 1,115
OK 435.0 390.0 185.0 350.0 701 912
SC 225.0 170.0 221.0 167.0 860 992
TN 265.0 205.0 250.0 190.0 1,052 889
TX 5,950.0 5,300.0 2,900.0 4,000.0 667 628
VA 91.0 73.0 90.0 72.0 1,136 1,127
US 10,977.0 9,141.0 7,555.7 7,688.9 886 842
American Pima
AZ 14.0 15.5 14.0 15.5 1,029 898
CA 145.0 92.0 142.0 91.0 1,237 1,683
NM 15.0 13.0 14.5 12.9 794 819
TX 33.0 21.0 30.0 19.0 816 884
US 207.0 141.5 200.5 138.4 1,128 1,405
All
AL 400.0 290.0 396.0 285.0 816 948
AZ 110.0 102.5 109.0 101.5 1,264 1,348
AR 650.0 520.0 640.0 515.0 1,341 1,239
CA 167.0 110.0 163.7 108.9 1,293 1,767
FL 85.0 61.0 82.0 60.0 697 880
GA 1,100.0 835.0 1,080.0 825.0 858 1,033
KS 131.0 102.0 124.0 77.0 778 966
LA 155.0 90.0 148.0 80.0 1,070 1,350
MS 520.0 330.0 515.0 325.0 1,157 1,167
MO 400.0 355.0 380.0 340.0 1,320 1,084
NM 57.0 43.0 42.5 36.9 723 793
NC 410.0 285.0 400.0 275.0 940 1,115
OK 435.0 390.0 185.0 350.0 701 912
SC 225.0 170.0 221.0 167.0 860 992
TN 265.0 205.0 250.0 190.0 1,052 889
TX 5,983.0 5,321.0 2,930.0 4,019.0 669 629
VA 91.0 73.0 90.0 72.0 1,136 1,127
US 11,184.0 9,282.5 7,756.2 7,827.3 892 852
================================================================================
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Cotton Production and Bales Ginned by Type - States and United States: 2024 and
2025
================================================================================
Production in Bales ginned in
Type and State 480-pound net weight
bales 1/ bales 2/
2024 2025 2024 2025
================================================================================
(1,000 bales) (bales)
Upland
AL 673.0 563.0 649,100 562,550
AZ 257.0 256.0 244,950 241,050
AR 1,788.0 1,329.0 1,985,950 1,457,450
CA 75.0 82.0 89,300 95,700
FL 119.0 110.0 116,100 91,950
GA 1,930.0 1,775.0 1,944,900 1,791,900
KS 201.0 155.0 179,100 165,200
LA 330.0 225.0 336,550 229,050
MS 1,241.0 790.0 1,178,550 730,850
MO 1,045.0 768.0 911,950 694,950
NM 40.0 39.0 22,200 12,400
NC 783.0 639.0 826,300 677,300
OK 270.0 665.0 168,750 534,050
SC 396.0 345.0 337,700 291,250
TN 548.0 352.0 545,550 350,550
TX 4,030.0 5,230.0 4,156,550 5,356,400
VA 213.0 169.0 220,800 178,900
US 13,939.0 13,492.0 13,914,300 13,461,500
American Pima
AZ 30.0 29.0 29,700 28,700
CA 366.0 319.0 364,900 318,450
NM 24.0 22.0 22,400 19,450
TX 51.0 35.0 51,750 36,150
US 471.0 405.0 468,750 402,750
All
AL 673.0 563.0 649,100 562,550
AZ 287.0 285.0 274,650 269,750
AR 1,788.0 1,329.0 1,985,950 1,457,450
CA 441.0 401.0 454,200 414,150
FL 119.0 110.0 116,100 91,950
GA 1,930.0 1,775.0 1,944,900 1,791,900
KS 201.0 155.0 179,100 165,200
LA 330.0 225.0 336,550 229,050
MS 1,241.0 790.0 1,178,550 730,850
MO 1,045.0 768.0 911,950 694,950
NM 64.0 61.0 44,600 31,850
NC 783.0 639.0 826,300 677,300
OK 270.0 665.0 168,750 534,050
SC 396.0 345.0 337,700 291,250
TN 548.0 352.0 545,550 350,550
TX 4,081.0 5,265.0 4,208,300 5,392,550
VA 213.0 169.0 220,800 178,900
US 14,410.0 13,897.0 14,383,050 13,864,250
================================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ Equivalent 480-pound net weight bales ginned, not adjusted for
cross-state movement.
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Cottonseed Production and Farm Disposition - States and United States: 2024 and
2025
================================================================================
Farm disposition
Seed for
Production Sales to planting 2/
State oil mills Other 1/
2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025
================================================================================
(1,000 tons)
AL 189.0 161.0 12.0 6.0 177.0 155.0 2.1 1.7
AZ 111.0 93.0 - 52.0 111.0 41.0 0.9 0.7
AR 513.0 397.0 393.0 314.0 120.0 83.0 3.7 3.0
CA 157.0 141.0 61.0 41.0 96.0 100.0 0.9 0.8
FL 33.0 31.0 29.0 24.0 4.0 7.0 0.3 0.3
GA 542.0 497.0 213.0 204.0 329.0 293.0 4.7 4.1
KS 61.0 47.0 - - 61.0 47.0 0.8 0.6
LA 104.0 71.0 50.0 48.0 54.0 23.0 0.7 0.7
MS 376.0 234.0 244.0 148.0 132.0 86.0 2.3 1.8
MO 305.0 235.0 175.0 199.0 130.0 36.0 1.8 2.0
NM 20.0 20.0 - 17.0 20.0 3.0 0.2 0.3
NC 238.0 186.0 13.0 11.0 225.0 175.0 1.9 2.2
OK 76.0 179.0 62.0 52.0 14.0 127.0 1.8 2.5
SC 109.0 95.0 - - 109.0 95.0 1.0 0.9
TN 147.0 103.0 133.0 73.0 14.0 30.0 1.5 1.6
TX 1,230.0 1,594.0 676.0 849.0 554.0 745.0 32.1 32.3
VA 51.0 48.0 29.0 17.0 22.0 31.0 0.6 0.5
US 4,262.0 4,132.0 2,090.0 2,055.0 2,172.0 2,077.0 57.3 56.0
================================================================================
- Represents zero.
1/ Includes planting seed, feed, exports, inter-farm sales, shrinkage, losses,
and other uses.
2/ Included in "other" farm disposition. Seed for planting is produced in crop
year shown, but used in the following year.
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units -
United States: 2025 and 2026
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank
data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
================================================================================
Area planted Area harvested
Crop
2025 2026 2025 2026
================================================================================
(1,000 acres)
Grains and hay
Barley 2,299 2,352 1,761
Corn for grain 1/ 98,788 95,338 91,258
Corn for silage (NA) 6,208
Hay, all (NA) (NA) 49,557 50,113
Alfalfa (NA) 14,676
All other (NA) 34,881
Oats 2,370 2,361 944
Proso millet 442 397
Rice 2,812 2,319 2,740
Rye 2,229 341
Sorghum for grain 6,640 6,120 6,020
1/
Sorghum for silage (NA) 448
Wheat, all 45,328 43,775 37,241
Winter 33,153 32,410 25,508 22,015
Durum 2,185 1,950 2,123
Other spring 9,990 9,415 9,610
Oilseeds
Canola 2,338.5 2,685.0 2,306.0
Cottonseed (X) (X)
Flaxseed 248 230 234
Mustard seed 126.2 111.8
Peanuts 1,953.0 1,674.0 1,906.0
Rapeseed 18.6 16.6
Safflower 116.5 108.5
Soybeans for beans 81,215 84,700 80,437
Sunflower 1,288.2 1,385.5 1,246.2
Cotton, tobacco,
and sugar crops
Cotton, all 9,282.5 9,640.0 7,827.3
Upland 9,141.0 9,510.0 7,688.9
American Pima 141.5 130.0 138.4
Sugarbeets 1,079.0 1,063.0 1,059.8
Sugarcane (NA) 946.0
Tobacco (NA) (NA) 171.3 171.6
Dry beans, peas,
and lentils
Chickpeas 536.0 499.0 520.3
Dry edible beans 1,366.0 1,236.0 1,334.6
Dry edible peas 1,173.0 1,174.0 1,063.0
Lentils 1,072.0 832.0 949.0
Potatoes and
miscellaneous
Hops (NA) 41.7
Maple syrup (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil (NA) 22.9
Potatoes 902.0 896.8
Spearmint oil (NA) 11.6
================================================================================
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units -
United States: 2025 and 2026 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank
data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
================================================================================
Yield per acre Production
Crop
2025 2026 2025 2026
================================================================================
(1,000)
Grains and hay
Barley bushels 80.0 140,849
Corn for grain bushels 186.5 17,020,549
Corn for silage tons 21.8 135,540
Hay, all tons 2.48 123,031
Alfalfa tons 3.42 50,213
All other tons 2.09 72,818
Oats bushels 73.8 69,626
Proso millet bushels 35.9 14,239
Rice 2/ cwt 7,544 206,707
Rye bushels 36.5 12,459
Sorghum for grain bushels 72.6 436,825
Sorghum for silage tons 16.4 7,325
Wheat, all bushels 53.3 1,984,537
Winter bushels 54.9 47.6 1,401,554 1,047,510
Durum bushels 40.6 86,223
Other spring bushels 51.7 496,760
Oilseeds
Canola pounds 2,017 4,650,910
Cottonseed tons (X) 4,132.0
Flaxseed bushels 22.2 5,202
Mustard seed pounds 636 71,120
Peanuts pounds 3,767 7,179,850
Rapeseed pounds 2,126 35,290
Safflower pounds 1,319 143,160
Soybeans for beans bushels 53.0 4,261,858
Sunflower pounds 1,863 2,321,852
Cotton, tobacco,
and sugar crops
Cotton 2/, all bales 852 13,897.0
Upland 2/ bales 842 13,492.0
American Pima 2/ bales 1,405 405.0
Sugarbeets tons 33.2 35,140
Sugarcane tons 36.4 34,445
Tobacco pounds 2,093 358,570
Dry beans, peas,
and lentils
Chickpeas 2/ cwt 1,315 6,844
Dry edible beans cwt 2,012 26,855
2/
Dry edible peas 2/ cwt 1,738 18,480
Lentils 2/ cwt 1,112 10,557
Potatoes and
miscellaneous
Hops pounds 1,996 83,143.4
Maple syrup gallons (NA) 5,771
Mushrooms pounds (NA) 669,930
Peppermint oil pounds 108 2,471
Potatoes cwt 460 412,860
Spearmint oil pounds 139 1,609
================================================================================
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Yield in pounds.
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United
States: 2025 and 2026
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank
data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
================================================================================
Area planted Area harvested
Crop
2025 2026 2025 2026
================================================================================
(hectares)
Grains and hay
Barley 930,380 951,830 712,660
Corn for grain 1/ 39,978,520 38,582,340 36,931,200
Corn for silage (NA) 2,512,320
Hay 2/, all (NA) (NA) 20,055,220 20,280,230
Alfalfa (NA) 5,939,230
All other (NA) 14,115,990
Oats 959,120 955,470 382,030
Proso millet 178,870 160,660
Rice 1,137,990 938,480 1,108,850
Rye 902,050 138,000
Sorghum for grain 2,687,140 2,476,700 2,436,230
1/
Sorghum for silage (NA) 181,300
Wheat 2/, all 18,343,790 17,715,300 15,071,060
Winter 13,416,690 13,116,000 10,322,830 8,909,250
Durum 884,250 789,150 859,160
Other spring 4,042,850 3,810,160 3,889,070
Oilseeds
Canola 946,370 1,086,590 933,220
Cottonseed (X) (X)
Flaxseed 100,360 93,080 94,700
Mustard seed 51,070 45,240
Peanuts 790,360 677,450 771,340
Rapeseed 7,530 6,720
Safflower 47,150 43,910
Soybeans for beans 32,866,900 34,277,240 32,552,050
Sunflower 521,320 560,700 504,320
Cotton, tobacco,
and sugar crops
Cotton 2/, all 3,756,530 3,901,210 3,167,630
Upland 3,699,270 3,848,600 3,111,620
American Pima 57,260 52,610 56,010
Sugarbeets 436,660 430,190 428,890
Sugarcane (NA) 382,840
Tobacco (NA) (NA) 69,320 69,440
Dry beans, peas,
and lentils
Chickpeas 216,910 201,940 210,560
Dry edible beans 552,810 500,200 540,100
Dry edible peas 474,700 475,110 430,190
Lentils 433,830 336,700 384,050
Potatoes and
miscellaneous
Hops (NA) 16,860
Maple syrup (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil (NA) 9,270
Potatoes 365,030 362,930
Spearmint oil (NA) 4,690
================================================================================
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United
States: 2025 and 2026 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank
data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
================================================================================
Yield per hectare Production
Crop
2025 2026 2025 2026
================================================================================
(metric tons)
Grains and hay
Barley 4.30 3,066,620
Corn for grain 11.71 432,341,860
Corn for silage 48.94 122,959,820
Hay 2/, all 5.57 111,611,850
Alfalfa 7.67 45,552,470
All other 4.68 66,059,380
Oats 2.65 1,010,620
Proso millet 2.01 322,930
Rice 8.46 9,376,070
Rye 2.29 316,470
Sorghum for grain 4.55 11,095,870
Sorghum for silage 36.65 6,645,130
Wheat 2/, all 3.58 54,010,250
Winter 3.70 3.20 38,144,050 28,508,550
Durum 2.73 2,346,610
Other spring 3.48 13,519,590
Oilseeds
Canola 2.26 2,109,620
Cottonseed (X) 3,748,490
Flaxseed 1.40 132,140
Mustard seed 0.71 32,260
Peanuts 4.22 3,256,730
Rapeseed 2.38 16,010
Safflower 1.48 64,940
Soybeans for beans 3.56 115,988,770
Sunflower 2.09 1,053,170
Cotton, tobacco,
and sugar crops
Cotton 2/, all 0.96 3,025,720
Upland 0.94 2,937,540
American Pima 1.57 88,180
Sugarbeets 74.33 31,878,470
Sugarcane 81.62 31,247,980
Tobacco 2.35 162,640
Dry beans, peas,
and lentils
Chickpeas 1.47 310,440
Dry edible beans 2.26 1,218,120
Dry edible peas 1.95 838,240
Lentils 1.25 478,860
Potatoes and
miscellaneous
Hops 2.24 37,710
Maple syrup (NA) 28,860
Mushrooms (NA) 303,870
Peppermint oil 0.12 1,120
Potatoes 51.60 18,727,020
Spearmint oil 0.16 730
================================================================================
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Total may not add due to rounding.
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year, except
citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation
period has not yet begun]
================================================================================
Production
Crop
2025 2026
================================================================================
Citrus 1/
Grapefruit 1,000 tons 307 305
Lemons 1,000 tons 1,131 1,119
Oranges 1,000 tons 2,354 2,529
Tangerines and 1,000 tons 1,235 1,221
mandarins
Noncitrus
Apples, commercial million pounds 11,102.0
Apricots tons 38,250
Avocados tons 185,740
Blueberries, 1,000 pounds 768,700
Cultivated
Blueberries, Wild 1,000 pounds 57,500
(Maine)
Cherries, Sweet tons 373,850
Cherries, Tart million pounds 142.2
Coffee (Hawaii) 1,000 pounds 20,735
Cranberries barrel 7,508,000
Dates tons 62,600
Grapes tons 5,233,500
Kiwifruit tons 40,600
(California)
Nectarines tons 147,000
(California)
Olives tons 144,000
(California)
Papayas (Hawaii) 1,000 pounds 9,240
Peaches tons 708,250
Pears tons 763,000
Plums (California) tons 84,500
Prunes tons 220,500
(California)
Raspberries 1,000 pounds 188,710
Strawberries 1,000 cwt 31,270.0
Nuts and
miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled 1,000 pounds 2,715,000 2,700,000
(California)
Hazelnuts, tons 121,500
in-shell (Oregon)
Macadamias 1,000 pounds 30,600
(Hawaii)
Pecans, in-shell 1,000 pounds 284,260
Pistachios 1,000 pounds 1,580,000
(California)
Walnuts, in-shell tons 809,000
(California)
================================================================================
1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026.
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year, except
citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation
period has not yet begun]
================================================================================
Production
Crop
2025 2026
================================================================================
(metric tons)
Citrus 1/
Grapefruit 278,510 276,690
Lemons 1,026,030 1,015,140
Oranges 2,135,510 2,294,270
Tangerines and 1,120,370 1,107,670
mandarins
Noncitrus
Apples, commercial 5,035,780
Apricots 34,700
Avocados 168,500
Blueberries, 348,680
Cultivated
Blueberries, Wild 26,080
(Maine)
Cherries, Sweet 339,150
Cherries, Tart 64,500
Coffee (Hawaii) 9,410
Cranberries 340,560
Dates 56,790
Grapes 4,747,750
Kiwifruit 36,830
(California)
Nectarines 133,360
(California)
Olives 130,630
(California)
Papayas (Hawaii) 4,190
Peaches 642,510
Pears 692,180
Plums (California) 76,660
Prunes 200,030
(California)
Raspberries 85,600
Strawberries 1,418,380
Nuts and
miscellaneous
Almonds, shelled 1,231,500 1,224,700
(California)
Hazelnuts, 110,220
in-shell (Oregon)
Macadamias 13,880
(Hawaii)
Pecans, in-shell 128,940
Pistachios 716,680
(California)
Walnuts, in-shell 733,910
(California)
================================================================================
1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026.
April Weather Summary
Highlights: Above-normal temperatures again dominated much of the country,
with many locations from the mid-South and lower Midwest to the central
Appalachians weathering a record-warm April, as well as temperatures
averaging more than 5 degrees F above normal. However, chilly weather lurked
for much of April across the Nation's Northern Tier, with several southward
forays of cold air across areas east of the Rockies. Consequently, a variety
of crops-including winter wheat and blooming fruits-experiencing varying
degrees of freeze damage, extending at least as far south as the central
High Plains and the middle Atlantic States. Some of the most significant
freezes related to winter wheat struck the central High Plains during the
weekend of April 18-19, followed by fruit-damaging frost in the mid-Atlantic
on April 20-21.
Any freeze-related damage to winter wheat compounded the effects of punishing
drought. By May 3, more than one-third (37 percent) of the Nation's
winter wheat crop was rated in very poor to poor condition, more than twice
last year's early-May value of 18 percent. States exceeding the National
value of 37 percent very poor to poor included Nebraska (67 percent), Texas
(56 percent), Oklahoma (49 percent) Colorado (45 percent), and Kansas
(44 percent). Expansive drought also adversely affected many grazing lands
and hay production areas, with more than one-half of rangeland and pastures
rated very poor to poor on May 3 in Arizona (80 percent), Nebraska
(72 percent), North Carolina (64 percent), Colorado (57 percent), Wyoming
(53 percent), and Georgia (53 percent).
Across the Lower 48 States, drought coverage exceeded 60 percent each week
from April 7 to May 5, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Prior to this
year, drought coverage had topped 60 percent only 30 times in the 27-year
existence of the Drought Monitor-25 weeks in 2012-13 and 5 weeks in 2022.
During April, National drought coverage peaked at 62.78 percent. Only
12 weeks in Drought Monitor history have featured greater drought coverage-
11 non-consecutive weeks from July-October 2012 and a single week in
October 2022. Ironically, the Midwest was largely free of drought by May 5,
with some watersheds in Michigan and Wisconsin experiencing record flooding
in mid-April. Even with some late-month drying, Statewide topsoil moisture by
May 3 was rated 42 percent surplus in Wisconsin, along with 32 percent in
Michigan. Some of the most consequential mid-April flooding affected the
Manistee and Muskegon Rivers in Michigan, and the Wolf and Menominee Rivers
in Wisconsin. In Michigan, only 10 percent of the intended sugarbeet acreage
had been planted by May 3, versus the 5-year average of 71 percent.
Ongoing Southeastern drought contributed to rash of April wildfires. Notably,
two southern Georgia wildfires-the Pineland Road and Highway 82 Fires-
collectively scorched more than 55,000 acres of vegetation. The
Pineland Road Fire, ignited in Clinch County by a welding spark, destroyed
nearly three dozen structures. The Highway 82 fire, sparked by a mylar
balloon contacting a power line, became the most destructive in modern
Georgia history, with well over 100 homes destroyed. During the first
4 months of the year, wildfires burned approximately 1.9 million acres of
vegetation across the country, nearly twice the January-April 10-year average
of 1.0 million acres.
Following a relatively quiet start to April, severe thunderstorms activity
sharply increased. Reports of severe weather-tornadoes, high winds, and large
hail-generally peaked from April 13-17 and April 23-28. According to
preliminary information provided by the National Weather Service, there were
more than 300 April tornadoes, along with nearly 1,300 reports of hail at
least an inch in diameter and more than 1,600 reports of thunderstorm-related
high winds or wind damage. The bulk of the severe weather occurred along and
east of a line from central Texas to southern Minnesota, consistent with
April rainfall largely bypassing the central and southern High Plains.
Despite the overall active pattern, the month's only tornado-related fatality
occurred on April 25 in Wise County, Texas.
Besides drought and freezes, one of April's agricultural highlights was rapid
planting progress for a variety of summer crops. However, mid- to late-month
storminess-and periods of cooler weather-slowed an initially torrid planting
pace in several areas, including the South and lower Midwest. Still,
79 percent of the Nation's rice acreage had been planted by May 3, well ahead
of the 5-year average of 66 percent. On the same date, planting progress was
ahead of the 5-year average for barley (49 percent planted), corn
(38 percent), soybeans (33 percent), and cotton (21 percent). In the West,
modestly cooler and somewhat wetter weather-compared to March-helped to
stabilize drought conditions, although many watersheds still face impending
water-supply issues related to inadequate and prematurely melted mountain
snowpack.
April Agricultural Summary
Temperatures averaged above normal across key U.S. agricultural regions. The
central Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley recorded
departures of 4 to 8°F above normal. In contrast, below-normal temperatures
were observed across portions of the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, precipitation patterns were highly variable.
Monthly precipitation totals ranged from less than 5 percent of normal across
much of the Southeast to more than 200 percent of normal in parts of the
Corn Belt. Dry weather prevailed across large portions of the Rocky Mountains
and the Great Plains, contributing to topsoil moisture declines.
Three percent of the 2026 corn crop had been planted by April 5,
one percentage point ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. By
April 12, producers had planted 5 percent of the Nation's corn crop,
1 percentage point ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. By
April 19, producers had planted 11 percent of the Nation's corn crop, equal
to last year but 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.
Four percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by April 19,
two percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. By
April 26, producers had planted 25 percent of the Nation's corn crop,
3 percentage points ahead of last year and 6 percentage points ahead of the
5-year average. Seven percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged by
April 26, two percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points
ahead of the 5-year average. By May 3, producers had planted 38 percent of
the Nation's corn crop, equal to last year but 4 percentage points ahead of
the 5-year average. Thirteen percent of the Nation's corn acreage had emerged
by May 3, three percentage points ahead of last year and 4 percentage points
ahead of the 5-year average.
Six percent of the 2026 soybean crop had been planted by April 12,
four percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. By
April 19, twelve percent of the 2026 soybean crop had been planted,
5 percentage points ahead of last year and 7 percentage points ahead of the
5-year average. By April 26, twenty-three percent of the soybean crop had
been planted, 6 percentage points ahead of last year and 11 percentage points
ahead of the 5-year average. Eight percent of the Nation's soybean acreage
had emerged by April 26, six percentage points ahead of last year and
7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By May 3,
thirty-three percent of the Nation's soybean crop had been planted,
5 percentage points ahead of last year and 10 percentage points ahead of the
5-year average. Thirteen percent of the Nation's soybean acreage had emerged
by May 3, seven percentage points ahead of last year and 8 percentage points
ahead of the 5-year average.
Seven percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed by April 5,
two percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. By
April 12, eleven percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed,
3 percentage points ahead of last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the
5-year average. By April 19, twenty percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop
was headed, 6 percentage points ahead of last year and 8 percentage points
ahead of the 5-year average. By April 26, thirty-four percent of the Nation's
winter wheat crop was headed, 9 percentage points ahead of last year and
13 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By May 3,
forty-nine percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed,
twelve percentage points ahead of last year and 17 percentage points ahead of
the 5-year average. On May 3, thirty-one percent of the 2026 winter wheat
acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, 20 percentage points below
the same time last year.
Five percent of the Nation's cotton crop had been planted by April 5,
one percentage point ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. By
April 12, seven percent of the cotton crop had been planted, two percentage
points ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. By April 19,
eleven percent of the cotton crop had been planted, 1 percentage point ahead
of both last year and the 5-year average. By April 26, sixteen percent of the
Nation's cotton crop had been planted, 2 percentage points ahead of last year
and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By May 3,
twenty-one percent of the cotton crop had been planted, 1 percentage point
ahead of last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.
Twelve percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage was planted by April 5,
one percentage point behind both last year and the 5-year average. By
April 12, thirteen percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage had been planted,
2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the 5-year
average. By April 19, fifteen percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage had
been planted, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point
behind the 5-year average. Twenty percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage had
been planted by April 26, equal to last year but 1 percentage point ahead of
the 5-year average. By May 3, twenty-two percent of the Nation's sorghum
acreage had been planted, 1 percentage point behind last year but equal to
the 5-year average.
Thirty percent of the 2026 rice acreage had been seeded by April 5,
seven percentage points ahead of the last year and 12 percentage points ahead
of the 5-year average. By April 5, thirteen percent of the Nation's rice
acreage had emerged, 2 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage
points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 12, producers had seeded
42 percent of the 2026 rice acreage, 11 percentage points ahead of last year
and 14 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Twenty-three percent of
the Nation's rice acreage had emerged by April 12, six percentage points
ahead of last year and 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By
April 19, producers had seeded 56 percent of the 2026 rice acreage,
10 percentage points ahead of last year and 16 percentage points ahead of the
5-year average. Thirty-four percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged
by April 19, seven percentage points ahead of last year and 12 percentage
points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 26, producers had seeded
69 percent of the 2026 rice acreage, 7 percentage points ahead of last year
and 16 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Forty-nine percent of
the Nation's rice acreage had emerged by April 26, nine percentage points
ahead of last year and 16 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By
May 3, producers had seeded 79 percent of the 2026 rice acreage, 7 percentage
points ahead of last year and 13 percentage points ahead of the 5-year
average. Sixty-one percent of the Nation's rice acreage had emerged by May 3,
nine percentage points ahead of last year and 17 percentage points ahead of
the 5-year average. On May 3, seventy-four percent of the Nation's rice
acreage was rated in good to excellent condition.
Twenty-eight percent of this year's oat crop had been seeded by April 5,
three percentage points behind last year but equal to the 5-year average.
Twenty-three percent of the Nation's oat acreage had emerged by April 5,
two percentage points behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. By
April 12, producers had seeded 36 percent of this year's oat crop,
4 percentage points behind last year but equal to the 5-year average.
Twenty-four percent of the Nation's oat acreage had emerged by April 12,
three percentage points behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the
5-year average. By April 19, producers had seeded 44 percent of this year's
oat crop, 7 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind
the 5-year average. Twenty-seven percent of the Nation's oat acreage had
emerged by April 19, three percentage points behind both last year and the
5-year average. By April 26, producers had seeded 53 percent of this year's
oat crop, 7 percentage points behind last year but equal to the 5-year
average. Thirty-four percent of the Nation's oat acreage had emerged by
April 26, two percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point
behind the 5-year average. By May 3, producers had seeded 63 percent of this
year's oat crop, 7 percentage points behind last year but equal to the 5-year
average. Forty-three percent of the Nation's oat acreage had emerged by
May 3, three percentage points behind last year but 1 percentage point ahead
of the 5-year average.
Five percent of the Nation's barley crop had been planted by April 5, equal
to both last year and the 5-year average. By April 12, thirteen percent of
the Nation's barley crop had been planted, 1 percentage point ahead of last
year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 19,
twenty-four percent of the Nation's barley crop had been planted, equal to
last year but 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Six percent of
the barley crop had emerged by April 19, three percentage points ahead of
last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 26,
thirty-four percent of the Nation's barley acreage had been planted,
1 percentage point behind last year but 5 percentage points ahead of the
5-year average. Eleven percent of the barley crop had emerged by April 26,
three percentage points ahead of last year and 5 percentage points ahead of
the 5-year average. By May 3, forty-nine percent of the Nation's barley
acreage had been planted, 1 percentage point ahead of last year and
6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Twenty-two percent of the
barley crop had emerged by May 3, five percentage points ahead of last year
and 9 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.
Two percent of the spring wheat crop had been seeded by April 5,
one percentage point behind both last year and the 5-year average. By
April 12, six percent of the spring wheat crop had been seeded, equal to last
year but 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. By April 19,
twelve percent of the spring wheat crop had been seeded, 4 percent behind
last year but equal to the 5-year average. Two percent of the spring wheat
acreage had emerged by April 19, equal to both last year and the 5-year
average. By April 26, nineteen percent of the spring wheat crop had been
seeded, 9 percentage points behind last year and 3 percentage points behind
the 5-year average. Five percent of the spring wheat acreage had emerged by
April 26, equal to last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year
average. By May 3, thirty-two percent of the spring wheat crop had been
seeded, 10 percentage points behind last year and 3 percentage points behind
the 5-year average. Ten percent of the spring wheat acreage had emerged by
May 3, two percentage points behind last year but 1 percentage point ahead of
the 5-year average.
Three percent of the 2026 sugarbeet crop had been planted by April 5,
one percentage point ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. By
April 12, nine percent of the 2026 sugarbeet crop had been planted,
1 percentage point behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. By
April 19, twelve percent of the 2026 sugarbeet crop had been planted,
8 percentage points behind last year and 6 percentage points behind the
5-year average. By April 26, fifteen percent of the 2026 sugarbeet crop had
been planted, 34 percentage points behind last year and 22 percentage points
behind the 5-year average. By May 3, fifty-five percent of the 2026 sugarbeet
crop had been planted, 24 percentage points behind last year and 3 percentage
points behind the 5-year average.
One percent of the 2026 peanut crop had been planted by April 12, equal to
both last year and the 5-year average. By April 19, four percent of the
2026 peanut crop had been planted, 1 percentage point ahead of last year and
2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 26, seven percent
of the 2026 peanut crop had been planted, equal to last year but 1 percentage
point ahead of the 5-year average. By May 3, thirteen percent of the
2026 peanut crop had been planted, 4 percentage points behind last year and
2 percentage points behind the 5-year average.
Crop Comments
Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent
from 2025. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 47.6 bushels
per acre, down 7.3 bushels from last year's average yield of 54.9 bushels per
acre. Michigan and Pennsylvania are expecting a record high yield. Area
expected to be harvested for grain is forecast at 22.0 million acres, down
14 percent from last year. If realized, this would be a record low harvested
acreage for the Nation. Producers expect to harvest 68 percent of the planted
acres for grain. Indiana, Nebraska, and Virginia are expecting record low
harvested acreage.
As of May 3, thirty-one percent of the winter wheat acreage in the 18 major
producing States was rated in good to excellent condition, 20 percentage
points lower than at the same time last year. Nationally, 49 percent of the
winter wheat crop was headed by May 3, seventeen percentage points ahead of
the 5-year average pace.
As of May 3, twenty-two percent of the winter wheat crop in Kansas, the
largest winter wheat producing State, was rated in good to excellent
condition.
Durum wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast
at a collective 8.29 million bushels, up 11 percent from last year. Acreage
intended for harvest in these two States is up 25 percent from 2025.
Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of May 1, 2026,
totaled 23.3 million tons, down 3 percent from May 1, 2025. Disappearance
from December 1, 2025 - May 1, 2026, totaled 58.4 million tons, up 2 percent
from the same period a year earlier.
Record low hay stocks were estimated in Connecticut, New Hamshire, and
Rhode Island.
Peaches: The 2026 California peach crop is forecast at 480,000 tons,
down 10 percent from last year. The California Freestone crop is forecast at
310,000 tons, down 3 percent from last season. The California Clingstone crop
is forecast at 170,000 tons, down 20 percent from the previous year.
Almonds: The 2026 California almond production (shelled basis) is forecast at
2.70 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the previous year. Bearing acreage,
at 1.39 million acres, is down 1 percent from 2025. The average yield is
forecast at 1,940 pounds per acre, unchanged from the previous season.
The May 1 forecast was based on a subjective survey of around 500 almond
growers conducted April 21 to May 6. It is a stratified random sample,
grouped by size of operation to ensure all growers will be proportionally
represented. Growers were asked to report their total and bearing acreage for
2026 along with their expected 2026 production, and were given the option of
reporting by mail, online, or phone.
2025 Cotton Final: All cotton production is estimated at 13.9 million
480-pound bales, down 4 percent from the 2024 crop. The United States yield
for all cotton is estimated at 852 pounds per acre, down 40 pounds from the
previous year.
Upland cotton production is estimated at 13.5 million 480-pound bales, down
3 percent from the 2024 crop. The United States yield for upland cotton is
estimated at 842 pounds per acre, down 44 pounds from 2024.
American Pima production is estimated at 405,000 480-pound bales, down
14 percent from 2024. The United States yield is estimated at 1,405 pounds
per acre, up 277 pounds from the previous season.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed production in 2025 totaled 4.13 million tons, down
3 percent from the previous year. Sales to oil mills accounted for 50 percent
of the disposition. The remaining 50 percent will be used for seed, feed,
exports, and various other uses.
Statistical Methodology
Wheat survey procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were
conducted between April 24 and May 7 to gather information on expected yield
as of May 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in three States
(Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) where wheat is normally mature enough to make
meaningful counts. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously
reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots
in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot
depended upon the crop's maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in
late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of
heads that would be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from
previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average
harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited
each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and
weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot
is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.
The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 7,350 producers
representing all major production areas. The survey was conducted primarily
by telephone with some use of mail, and internet. These producers were
selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable
winter wheat acres for harvest and yield on their operation. These growers
will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide
indications of average yields.
Wheat estimating procedures: National and State level objective yield and
grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with
historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather
patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years.
Each Regional Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to
the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the
State analyses to prepare the published May 1 forecasts.
Revision Policy: The May 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead,
a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season.
End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the wheat
marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks,
production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then
made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant
changes.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1
production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the May 1
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root
Mean Square Error" for the May 1 winter wheat production forecast is
5.7 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current
production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more
than 5.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that
the difference will not exceed 9.9 percent.
Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of
the differences between the May 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using
winter wheat again as an example, changes between the May 1 forecast and
final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 65 million bushels,
ranging from 5 million to 245 million bushels. The May 1 forecast has been
below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. This does not imply
that the May 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or
overstate final production.
Crop Production: Released May 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Reliability of May 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]
================================================================================
Diff between forecast
and final estimate
90 percent Production Years
Crop Root confidence
Mean interval Below Above
Square Average SmallestLargest final
Error
================================================================================
(%) (millions) (number)
Wheat
Winter wheat bushels 5.7 9.9 65 5 245 10 10
================================================================================
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail
inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov
Anthony Prillaman, Acting Chief, Crops Branch (202) 720-2127
Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127 Fleming Gibson, Head,
Fruits, Vegetables, and Special Crops Section (202) 236-2428
Joshua Bates - Asparagus, Hemp, Maple Syrup, Soybeans (202) 690-3234 Natasha
Bruton - Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings, Fats and Oils,
Flour Milling Products, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Plums, Prunes (202) 690-1042
Noemi Guindin - Crop Progress and Condition, Kiwifruit (202) 720-7324 Michelle
Harder - Hay, Kale, Peanuts, Raspberries (202) 690-8533 Deonne Holiday -
Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions Proso Millet, Rye, Tobacco
(202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Barley, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches,
Snap Beans, Tomatoes (202) 720-7235 James Johanson - Dry Edible Beans, Lettuce,
Macadamias, Wheat (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Beets, Corn, Flaxseed, Pears,
Rice, Sweet Corn (202) 720-9526 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Celery, Grapefruit,
Lemons, Mandarins and Tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios
(202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins,
Squash, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Becky Sommer -
Cabbage, Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum, Walnuts, Strawberries (202) 720-5944
Travis Thorson - Blueberries, Canola, Mustard Seed, Rapeseed, Safflower,
Spinach, Sunflower (202) 720-7369 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas,
Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Oats, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries,
Watermelons (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Chile
Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans (202) 720-4215
Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
ways:
All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web
site: www.nass.usda.gov.
The national specific reports are available via a free e-mail
subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov
and click on "National" in upper right corner above "search" box to
create an account and select the reports you would like to receive.
Economics, Statistics, and Market Information (ESMIS) - National
Agricultural Library (NAL) website houses NASS's and other agency
archived reports at https://esmis.nal.usda.gov. All email subscriptions
containing reports will be sent from https://esmis.nal.usda.gov. To
receive the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the website,
create a new account and subscribe to the reports. You should whitelist
notifications@esmis.nal.usda.gov in your email client to avoid the
emails going into spam/junk folders.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
nass@usda.gov.
If you have specific questions you would like an expert to respond to, please
visit our "Ask A Specialist" website at
www.nass.usda.gov/Contact_Us/Ask_a_Specialist.
In accordance with Federal civil rights law and U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA) civil rights regulations and policies, the USDA, its
Agencies, offices, and employees, and institutions participating in or
administering USDA programs are prohibited from discriminating based on race,
color, national origin, religion, sex, disability, age, marital status,
family/parental status, income derived from a public assistance program,
political beliefs, or reprisal or retaliation for prior civil rights
activity, in any program or activity conducted or funded by USDA (not all
bases apply to all programs). Remedies and complaint filing deadlines vary by
program or incident.
Persons with disabilities who require alternative means of communication for
program information (e.g., Braille, large print, audiotape, American Sign
Language, etc.) should contact the responsible Agency or USDA's TARGET Center
at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TTY) or contact USDA through the Federal Relay
Service at (800) 877-8339. Additionally, program information may be made
available in languages other than English.
To file a program discrimination complaint, complete the USDA Program
Discrimination Complaint Form, AD-3027, found online at How to File a Program
Discrimination Complaint and at any USDA office or write a letter addressed
to USDA and provide in the letter all of the information requested in the
form. To request a copy of the complaint form, call (866) 632-9992. Submit
your completed form or letter to USDA by: (1) mail: U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400
Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-9410; (2) fax: (202) 690-
7442; or (3) email: program.intake@usda.gov.
USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.