DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a ridge in the West and Central. The ridge will continually be beaten westward throughout the week as clipper systems move down through Canada into the Central and Eastern U.S., resulting in an overall trough there.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge is forecast to continue northwest through Alaska and the Bering Sea next week, which should shift the trough through most of Canada while a ridge pops up in the Southeast. This should become a much more volatile pattern for the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but disagree with how widespread and harsh cold air will move into the eastern half of the U.S. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which currently has more cold air next week.

A clipper system will be pushing off the East Coast this weekend while another moves in through the northern tier going into next week. Another system will be possible in the middle-to-end of next week. Volatile temperatures are expected, with colder temperatures behind systems and brief warm air ahead of the next one.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN…89 AT 17 MILES EAST OF OCHOPEE, FL

LOW  SUN…16 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY…JUNEAU, AK 0.62 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a ridge in the West and Central. The ridge will continually be beaten westward throughout the week as clipper systems move down through Canada into the Central and Eastern U.S., resulting in an overall trough there. The ridge is forecast to continue northwest through Alaska and the Bering Sea next week, which should shift the trough through most of Canada while a ridge pops up in the Southeast. This should become a much more volatile pattern for the end of January.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but disagree with how widespread and harsh cold air will move into the eastern half of the U.S. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which currently has more cold air next week.

A clipper system will be pushing off the East Coast this weekend while another moves in through the northern tier going into next week. Another system will be possible in the middle-to-end of next week. Volatile temperatures are expected, with colder temperatures behind systems and brief warm air ahead of the next one.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A brief burst of some colder air moved through the region over the weekend, but was quickly replaced by significant warmth. Several days of warmth are on tap before the pattern collapses and turns to a colder one this weekend and especially next week with more clippers bringing down arctic air.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A band of snow fell across the southwestern Plains on Friday and protected some of the winter wheat from cold over the weekend. Above-normal temperatures this week should help to melt the snow. But eventually some colder air is likely to move down into the region and threaten more of the winter wheat as it has abnormally low cold hardiness after several weeks of relative warmth. The pattern may be a bit more threatening by the end of next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought widespread rain changing to snow over the weekend, which was heavier across some areas of Michigan and included some lake-effect. Several clippers will move through this week and next with variable temperatures and limited showers. We may have to watch for a bigger system and stronger burst of cold air to move through by the end of next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels along the Mississippi River are getting a boost from a system that brought showers late last week, but are still low and not a long-term solution to the low water levels. Clipper systems moving through this week are not likely to provide a meaningful boost to levels either.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend with widespread showers and will continue over south-central areas with needed rain the next couple of days. Models are also increasing rainfall coverage across the rest of central Brazil this week, which may be beneficial for filling soybeans if it comes true. Recent heat and limited showers may have been somewhat stressful in some areas, but the coming rain is likely to relieve much of that stress.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved out of northern areas this weekend, which are in fairly good shape for corn and soybeans. Southern and central areas have been much drier and are seeing soil moisture and crop conditions falling. A front will bring some isolated showers to southern areas on Tuesday and another will sweep through the country on Thursday and Friday.

rainfall amounts may be impressive for a couple of lucky locations, but are more likely to occur over the north yet again. Crop conditions are forecast to continue falling, which has been planned for by many producers that understand the risk for dryness in January. There will be some effect, however.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. The storm track remains active but will favor the west and north. Some areas in the south and southeast may dry out a bit, but are still in good shape.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Cold air moved into Ukraine over the weekend and will migrate to western Russia this week. Ukraine had better snow coverage, but that is more limited farther east, which may need to worry about winterkill damage as the cold air sticks around through next week. Some limited showers will fall early this week, but will dry out with time. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas have decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather continues for most areas this week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been relatively limited over the last couple of months. Another week of dry weather is forecast that would continue that trend. It is a long time before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy, but they will need more precipitation.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures well above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures well above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com