DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in Alaska and another in eastern Canada. A ridge is found over the West. Disturbances will move from the Alaskan trough over the ridge and into the East through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will expand eastward this weekend and a new trough will form over northern Canada, forcing the storm track north of the border next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will exit off the East Coast on Sunday, pulling down some extremely cold air for a couple of days. Warmer air will spread into the Plains right behind it for early next week. Some of that warmth will try to spread eastward, but a couple of systems moving through Canada will counter that by bringing in some waves of precipitation and a couple of cold fronts.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON…87 AT MIAMI, FL AND HOLLYWOOD, FL

LOW MON…23 BELOW ZERO AT 31 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOREST CENTER, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CST MONDAY…ORLANDO, FL 2.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in Alaska and another in eastern Canada. A ridge is found over the West. Disturbances will move from the Alaskan trough over the ridge and into the East through the weekend. The ridge will expand eastward this weekend and a new trough will form over northern Canada, forcing the storm track north of the border next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will exit off the East Coast on Sunday, pulling down some extremely cold air for a couple of days. Warmer air will spread into the Plains right behind it for early next week. Some of that warmth will try to spread eastward, but a couple of systems moving through Canada will counter that by bringing in some waves of precipitation and a couple of cold fronts.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A clipper will move through on Tuesday with scattered precipitation, heavy snow in the northeast, and strong winds. Another clipper will move through on Thursday with more precipitation and heavier snow in the southwest and a blast of arctic air behind it. The cold won’t last long with warmer air moving in early next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): The storm track is to the north this week, allowing some warmer air into the region. However, a strong cold front will move through on Friday with another blast of colder air. That should be brief though as warmer air moves in next week. Precipitation is generally not expected, but a few spots could see some light amounts.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Four clippers will move across the region through this weekend with variable precipitation, but chances for some more moderate snow, breezy winds, and reinforcing shots of cold air. Some warmth is moving through on Tuesday, but a clipper moving through Tuesday night and Wednesday will cause temperatures to fall. Another blast of extremely cold, arctic air is forecast again this weekend. It will be very intense and some areas may not make it above zero, but will only last a couple of days with more seasonable air moving in next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Recent precipitation in the Midwest produced a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system throughout the winter. Multiple clippers will move through the north this week, keeping the Delta region fairly dry and promoting slow falls in water levels on the rivers.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rain has fallen in central and northern Brazil over the last week, which has been sorely needed for developing to reproductive soybeans. A stronger system moving through the south on Tuesday is bringing through some widespread rainfall, some of that being heavy and improving soil moisture. Scattered showers will continue across the central and north. Conditions are either favorable or improving.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved through on Sunday and Monday, which produced patchy rainfall outside of the north that got some heavier amounts. Though the pattern has been slower with rainfall chances, soil moisture is still favorable after an active spring. A couple of chances for patchy rainfall continue this week, but rainfall is coming at a below-normal pace and next week is forecast to be much drier. Issues with some areas getting too dry for developing corn and soybeans will be a concern with time.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): An active pattern moving through over the last several weeks has most areas in good shape with soil moisture. For dormant wheat across the north and central, wheat is in good shape. Across the south, some showers will move through Spain, but Italy and the Balkans will be dry. More rain would be favorable here, but there isn’t a concern just yet.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Systems moving across northern Europe will bring some showers through the region through the weekend. Dryness and drought are still a major concern this winter as wheat went dormant late and largely in questionable condition. Some southern areas are still too warm for dormancy, with above-normal temperatures continuing this week. The showers here would be beneficial yet.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture conditions are mixed with some areas scattered about that are too dry while some are just fine. Wheat and canola continue to be harvested while cotton and sorghum are being planted and going through early growth. Some showers will be possible in eastern growing areas this week, but very little is forecast elsewhere as conditions will continue trending downward in many areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions have been favorable to end the fall season for winter wheat and canola in dormancy. Dry conditions across the south have been stressful for sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. A system moving through late this week will bring through widespread precipitation, but southern areas are still in a much drier trend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered snow. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered snow. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday, well below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures well below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers southeast Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Scattered showers and heavy rain. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com