DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Alaska with a trough in the Central and East. Another trough is just off the coast of California, which will produce a massive storm system across the southern half of the country this weekend as it moves east.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

With the Alaskan ridge moving up to the North Pole next week, a new ridge will form across the West, though clippers will maintain the trough over the eastern U.S. through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is still colder. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The worst of the cold air will leave on Monday, but clippers coming down from Canada will bring additional snow and more bursts of cold air. We could see one of those systems dive down deep into the country and produce another winter storm for the South late next week or weekend, though that is uncertain right now.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU…86 AT OCHOPEE, FL

LOW THU…29 BELOW ZERO AT BOTTINEAU, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY…LAKE CHARLES, LA 0.78 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Alaska with a trough in the Central and East. Another trough is just off the coast of California, which will produce a massive storm system across the southern half of the country this weekend as it moves east through the country. With the Alaskan ridge moving up to the North Pole next week, a new ridge will form across the West, though clippers will maintain the trough over the eastern U.S. through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is still colder. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The worst of the cold air will leave on Monday, but clippers coming down from Canada will bring additional snow and more bursts of cold air. We could see one of those systems dive down deep into the country and produce another winter storm for the South late next week or weekend, though that is uncertain right now.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Significantly below normal temperatures are stuck in place through the weekend. Temperatures should moderate some next week, but will still be cold, reinforced by a couple of more clippers moving through. Warmer temperatures will eventually win out next weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A strong arctic cold front is sweeping south on Friday, bringing in extremely cold air. A system will form along the front and produce widespread wintry conditions across the region for Friday night and Saturday. Areas of heavy snow and ice will produce major impacts to infrastructure. Some of that snow may protect areas of winter wheat from the harsh temperatures, but significant damage to wheat is looking likely, especially for areas that do not receive much snow.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Extremely cold air is locking into place through Monday. A system will move across the south this weekend, but should clip the southern half of the region with some heavy snow. Though the harshest temperatures will moderate a bit next week, a few clippers should bring reinforcing shots of cold air and some more light snow. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill on winter wheat.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be low, though not dangerously so. A major winter storm will move through this weekend. That should help to boost water levels on the river and help to ease some of the growing drought in the region. That will be accompanied by a burst of arctic air and local rivers may have to worry about ice jams because of it next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans. South-central areas have been drier this week, which may continue through next week as well. That may include some significant areas of filling soybeans that could cut the top off of yields in some areas. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. A few spotty showers may develop across the south this weekend, but coverage is forecast to be low. Models have increased chances for spotty showers for more of the country next week, but the prospects are still low.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. Storms continue to run into the west, but will spread through the Mediterranean this weekend and may spread some showers across the north next week as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Extremely cold air sat across much of the region last week and continues in western Russia through Monday. Temperatures should rise next week. Snow cover is not sufficient to protect all of the wheat from the recent and forecast cold temperatures. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though that is somewhat mixed across the east, where spotty showers have been able to hold back the dryness a bit. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some helpful precipitation fell over the weekend and more will be possible this weekend, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Heavy snow south Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures well below normal through Monday, below to well below normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures falling.

Forecast: Heavy freezing rain and snow Friday-Saturday. Light snow lingering Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday, especially north. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com