DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Alaska with a trough in the Central and East. The trough will push a significant cold front through the country Thursday and Friday. A trough off the coast of California will then move east, producing a storm system across the southern half of the country that will have significant winter impacts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

With the Alaskan ridge moving up to the North Pole next week, a new ridge will form across the West, though clippers are likely to keep a trough going over the eastern U.S. through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is still colder. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The worst of the cold air will leave on Monday, but clippers coming down from Canada will bring additional snow and more bursts of cold air. We could see one of those systems dive down deep into the country and produce another winter storm for the South, though that is uncertain right now.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED…80 AT MCALLEN TX AND 8 MILES WEST OF PANTHER CITY, FL

LOW WED…20 BELOW ZERO AT STANLEY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY…LAKE CHARLES, LA 1.54 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Alaska with a trough in the Central and East. The trough will push a significant cold front through the country Thursday and Friday. A trough off the coast of California will then move east, producing a storm system across the southern half of the country that will have significant winter impacts. With the Alaskan ridge moving up to the North Pole next week, a new ridge will form across the West, though clippers are likely to keep a trough going over the eastern U.S. through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the European is still colder. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The worst of the cold air will leave on Monday, but clippers coming down from Canada will bring additional snow and more bursts of cold air. We could see one of those systems dive down deep into the country and produce another winter storm for the South, though that is uncertain right now.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A significant arctic cold front is moving through on Thursday and temperatures will be well below normal. Temperatures should moderate some next week, but will still be cold, reinforced by a couple of more clippers moving through.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A strong arctic cold front will sweep south on Friday which will bring in some extremely cold air. In addition, a system will form along the front and produce widespread wintry conditions across the region for Friday night and Saturday. Areas of heavy snow and ice are in the forecast. Some of that snow may protect areas of winter wheat from the harsh temperatures, but significant damage is looking likely.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A significant arctic cold front will sweep through the region on Thursday, leading to some significantly cold air for Friday through Monday. A system will move across the south, but should clip the southern half of the region with some snow, which should be heavy near and south of I-70. Though the harshest temperatures will moderate next week, a few clippers should bring reinforcing shots of cold air and some more light snow. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill on winter wheat.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be low, though not dangerously so. Some beneficial showers moved across the region on Wednesday and a major winter storm will move through this weekend. That should help to boost water levels on the river and help to ease some of the growing drought in the region. That will be accompanied by a burst of arctic air and local rivers may have to worry about ice jams because of it next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans. South-central areas will stay drier, possibly through next week. That may include some significant areas of filling soybeans that could cut the top off of yields in some areas. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop as well, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time. Soil moisture and crop conditions continue to fall which will have some effect on both corn and soybean production. A few spotty showers may develop across the south this weekend, but coverage is forecast to be low. Models have increased chances for spotty showers for more of the country next week, but the prospects are still low.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still favorable across most of the continent for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. Storms continue to run into the west, but will spread through the Mediterranean later this week and weekend and may spread some showers across the north next week as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Extremely cold air sat across much of the region last week and continues in western Russia through Monday. Temperatures should rise next week. Snow cover is not sufficient to protect all of the wheat from the recent and forecast cold temperatures. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though that is somewhat mixed across the east, where spotty showers have been able to hold back the dryness a bit. Dry weather continues for most areas over the next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some helpful precipitation fell over the weekend and more will be possible this coming weekend, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered snow south Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias…

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday, especially north. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com