Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

July canola is down $3.70/mt with November canola down $3.10/mt, July soybean oil is up .16 cents/pound, August European rapeseed is down 3.00 euro per mt and July Malaysian palm oil is down .42%. July oats are up 3/4 cents/bushel. June crude oil is down $4.71 per barrel, June ULSD is down $.0870 per gallon, and the June Canadian dollar is down .00025 at .73615. The June U.S. Dollar Index is down .067 at 98.195 and the May Brazilian real is up .00235 at 0.20235.

The White House has done everything it can to emphasize that it is trying to avoid escalation despite Iran’s continued attacks on the UAE and vessels in the area. At a morning briefing, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, went as far as reiterating that “we’re not looking for a fight” and the U.S. will soon hand over the responsibility of the strait to the world. Suggesting again that the strategy of simply leaving with Iran in charge (of the strait) may remain a possibility.

With that, much of Monday’s reactions to the Iranian attacks have been retraced with energy, grain and oilseed markets all lower (except soybean oil) while stocks and bonds have rallied.

Unless the final outcome is to be Iran controlling the strait with the world being okay with paying a toll and dealing with the leadership of Iran (that still seems to be in disarray), there remains no end in sight for the closure of the strait at ten weeks into the war. Seeding likely will be complete in the next four weeks without additional fertilizer imports. This suggests the price action is just the typical volatility experienced during strong moves.