DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend in most active corn futures is sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 131,463 contracts as of July 14, and were net-buyers of 30,483 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders returned to buying with conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt turning hot and dry through mid-July.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 94,976 contracts as of July 14, and were net-sellers of 27,322 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The September 2026 contract is priced 22 1/2 cents lower than the December 2026 contract, falling through the week to the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives, and a sign of comfortable old crop supplies. National average corn basis held steady through the past week at 29 cents under the September board, still the third weakest of the past decade for early July.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (December) corn futures contract finished the most recent week at the 19th percentile, still a relatively inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (December) corn contract held at 9% after prices again traded marginally higher for the fifth straight week, but still well within the previous three month range.