DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend in most active corn futures is sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 100,980 contracts as of July 7, and were net-buyers of 36,803 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders looked to build weather risk back into prices ahead of a hotter and drier mid-July forecast.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 67,654 contracts as of July 7, and were net-sellers of 32,775 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The September 2026 contract is priced 21 1/2 cents lower than the December 2026 contract, falling through the week to the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives, and a sign of comfortable old crop supplies. National average corn basis faded 1 cent through the past week to 29 cents under the September board, showing strength in the past few weeks but still the third weakest of the past decade for early July.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (December) corn futures contract finished the most recent week at the 17th percentile, still a relatively inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (December) corn contract held at 9% after prices again traded moderately higher through the most recent week.