DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for July corn is higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 358,102 contracts as of May 19 and were net-sellers of 25,435 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders booked profits on length amid renewed peace efforts in the Middle East and few issues for U.S. planting thus far.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 288,625 contracts as of May 19 and were net-sellers of 28,669 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The July 2026 contract is priced 6 1/4 cents lower than the September 2026 contract, narrowing (less carry) slightly through the week but still among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives. National average corn basis firmed 1 cent through the past week to 39 cents under the July board, still the weakest basis of the past decade for late May.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front-month (July) corn futures contract finished the most recent week up 2 points to the 18th percentile, an inexpensive price for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (July) corn contract fell to 4% after prices traded higher through the week but faced resistance at the upper bound of the implied volatility range ($4.80).