DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for July corn is higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 433,384 contracts as of May 5, and were net-buyers of 92,644 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders continued their bullish outlook amid seasonal strength and strong influence from energy futures amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 368,848 contracts as of May 5, and were net-sellers of 86,719 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The July 2026 contract is priced 6 1/2 cents lower than the September 2026 contract, widening (more carry) through the week and to the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives. National average corn basis firmed 1 cent through the past week to 41 cents under the July board, still the weakest basis of the past decade for early May.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (July) corn futures contract finished the most recent week down 2 points to the 20th percentile, still an inexpensive price for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (July) corn contract held at 7% after prices traded lower through the week, snapping a streak of three higher weeks.