DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for July corn is revised to higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 340,740 contracts as of April 28 and were net-buyers of 77,008 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders continued their bullish outlook given the high cost of fertilizer around the globe.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 282,129 contracts as of April 28 and were net-sellers of 73,884 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The July 2026 contract is priced 4 1/4 cents lower than the September 2026 contract, narrowing (less carry) slightly through the week but still among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives. National average corn basis firmed 1 cent through the past week to 42 cents under the July board, still the weakest basis of the past decade for late April/early May.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (July) corn futures contract finished the most recent week up 4 points to the 22nd percentile, still an inexpensive price for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (July) corn contract rose to 7% after prices traded higher through the week for the third straight week, setting new 2026 highs in the process.