DTN Soybean Six Factors

TREND: The trend for July soybeans is higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial soybean traders held a net-long futures position of 204,675 contracts as of May 26, a decrease of 7,563 contracts over the CFTC reporting period. Even so, the relatively large net-long position reflects optimism, helping sustain the current uptrend.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial soybean traders held a net-short futures position of 176,610 contracts as of May 26, and were net-buyers of 6,656 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The July to August soybean futures spread closed the week with a 3 1/2 cent carry, weakened by little confidence for increased old crop demand from China. The national average soybean basis firmed 2 cents through the most recent week to 62 cents under the July board, showing good improvement the past two months, but still leaning bearish as a sign of demand.

SEASONAL INDEX: Soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: In the latest week, the most active (July) soybean futures contract slipped 3 points to the 27th percentile, still within the lower third of observed prices within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for front month (July) soybean futures stayed quiet at 3% after prices finished lower on the week.