Row Crops Mixed in Subdued Close to Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

July corn closed up 1 cent and December corn was up 3/4 cent. July soybeans closed down 1 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 2 cents. July KC wheat closed down 1/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was down 2 1/4 cents, July MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/4 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.14 at 99.72. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 403.0 points at 51,278.0. August gold is up $134.00 at $4,248.0, July silver is up $4.34 at $68.34 and July copper is up $0.190. July crude oil is down $2.98 at $84.73, July ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.1096, July RBOB gasoline is down $0.0538 and July natural gas is up $0.034.

FOR THE WEEK:

July corn closed down 4 3/4 cents and December corn was down 5 3/4 cents. July soybeans closed down 8 cents and November soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents. July KC wheat closed up 13 3/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 4 1/2 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/4 cents.

CORN:

July corn futures traded 1 cent higher on Friday, closing at $4.12 3/4. December futures were up 3/4 of a cent to $4.40 1/4. The corn market recovered from another drop to fresh contract lows for the July contract on both Thursday and again early Friday, following a neutral to bearish WASDE report on Thursday which saw world supplies (not including China) grow to the largest in nine years as forecasted. Support at the mid-October lows for most active futures ($4.10) held through this week with the next bearish target the mid-August lows sub-$4.00. The bullish target from here would be to stabilize prices above the mid-January lows near $4.20.

Thursday’s WASDE left the U.S. balance sheets for old-crop 2025-26 and new-crop 2026-27 relatively unchanged from the May report. Ending stocks rose marginally with old-crop reserves remaining north of 2 billion bushels (bb) and among the largest on record. Perhaps overshadowed by the WASDE was a very good weekly export sales report for corn, with especially strong new-crop sales as world demand for U.S. corn remains very active on declines in price. New-crop sales sit 32% ahead of the same point in 2025 with USDA expecting corn exports will fall 5% in 2026-27. It’s obviously still very early, but a great start, nonetheless.

In world corn news, the situation has grown increasingly bearish in the past couple of months. USDA increased their outlook for Brazilian corn production to 138 million metric tons (mmt), a new record in USDA’s books. Essentially, the market is now looking at record production for the top three corn exporting countries in the world in 2025-26 between the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina. The bias for crop sizes may also still be higher yet, with CONAB (Brazil) forecasting a 140.5-mmt crop in their Thursday report, and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Argentina) still estimating a 64-mmt crop. A positive takeaway from the world corn market is that even with record production in South America, the deficit of corn demand relative to production in the world once the U.S. and China are removed continues to grow, leaving the U.S. in a great position for another strong export year. 

The DTN National Corn Index finished Thursday at $3.79. Friday’s futures close and Thursday’s national average corn basis of 32 cents under the July board would indicate the index on Friday afternoon to be near $3.80.

SOYBEANS:

July soybeans closed down 1 1/2 cents on Friday to $11.13 1/2. November futures were down 2 cents to $11.32. The soybean market gave up early gains on Friday, unable to ignore the bearish influence of the soybean oil market amid outside energy pressure. The 200-day moving average ($11.12) on the most active chart continues to hold as immediate support, with the next bearish target a fall toward January prices below $11.00.

Thursday’s WASDE saw another reshuffling of demand from USDA, taking another 20 million bushels (mb) out of the export program and moving it to domestic crush. The timing of another cut to export demand is interesting, considering soybean commitments for 2025-26 are now running ahead of USDA’s estimated pace as of early June, though shipments have still been lagging. The crush adjustment is more than justified given the outstanding pace through April as well as record-level margins. Overall, in my opinion the U.S. balance sheet from 2025-26 to 2026-27 continues to sit on the fence between a price-neutral and price-bullish situation, with reserves still expected to fall to 310 mb by next summer which is dependent on a record-tying national average yield, stressing the significance weather will continue to play in trader bias moving forward. Of course, the wild card will be where actual planted acreage lands, to which we will receive a big clue on June 30.

In world soybean news, on Thursday CONAB touched up their estimate for Brazil’s crop to 180.3 mmt, still a record and in line with USDA’s estimate on Thursday as well. For Argentina, harvest is almost complete (95%) on what is expected to be a 50-mmt soybean crop. Overall, world soybean reserves remain elevated among record levels set in 2024-25 and are expected to remain elevated through the next marketing year as well with Brazil’s production expected to expand once again.

The DTN National Soybean Index finished Thursday at $10.62. Friday’s futures close and Thursday’s national average soybean basis of 53 cents under the July board would indicate the index on Friday afternoon to be near $10.60.

WHEAT:

July Kansas City wheat futures fell 1/4 cent on Friday to $6.34 1/2. Chicago and Minneapolis markets were marginally lower as well, to close the week. The wheat market faltered among early highs yet again with the $6.40 level for July futures providing firm resistance to prices this week, while support at the 100-day moving average ($6.27 3/4) continues to hold. After the intense selloff through May, wheat traders appear torn at this point between falling U.S. crop ideas but fairly comfortable world wheat supplies regardless after a strong 2025 cycle for crops.

Thursday’s WASDE showed the U.S. winter wheat crop in 2026 falling to the lowest production level since 1965, which is in turn expected to contribute to all-wheat production being the lowest since 1970. With this historically low production, U.S. wheat reserves are expected to fall 20% year-over-year, to only a three-year low, however. New-crop wheat export sales have surged over the past few weeks but remain 22% lower than at the same point in 2025, with USDA expecting that expensive U.S. offers relative to global competitors will lead to a 15% year-over-year decline in wheat exports.

In world wheat news, Argentina is 44% planted on their 2026-27 wheat crop, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expecting a 3% drop in area compared to last year, and USDA expecting a 25% decline in production on more conservative yields relative to last year’s records. USDA increased their outlook for Black Sea crops this summer, with record crops still expected in China and India as well which keeps fears of a supply squeeze minimized at least for the immediate future.

The DTN National HRW Index finished Thursday at $5.78, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.77. Friday’s futures close and Thursday’s national average soybean basis of 57 cents under the July board for HRW, and 68 cents under the September board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Friday afternoon to be near $5.78 and $5.74, respectively.

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at Rhett.Montgomery@dtn.com