Row Crop Futures Leak Lower Early Friday

EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: September corn is down 1 1/2 cents and August soybeans are down 1 1/2 cents. September KC wheat is up 2 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat is down 1/4 cents, and September MIAX Minneapolis wheat is down 1/2 cents.

CME GLOBEX RECAP: On Thursday, September corn traded 6 cents lower to close at $4.41 1/2, August soybeans were down 7 1/4 cents to $11.95, and September Kansas City wheat fell 3 1/2 cents to $7.16 1/2. Profit taking and technical based selling was the theme across row crop futures on Thursday, as all markets had become somewhat overbought technically after strong Wednesday sessions. From here, traders may feel they’ve adequately reflected known risk to U.S. crops amid the recent heatwave and will require evidence of a larger threat to production, likely in the form of declining ratings in upcoming Crop Progress reports. As for the geopolitical turmoil in the Black Sea, the uncertainty regarding the availability of grain supplies via export should keep a level of support below prices, though it will take time for the market to sort out the exact implications of a prolonged closure to shipping channels such as the Kerch Strait. For reports to close the week, Friday is a not slated to be a busy day with the usual CFTC Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CDT the only major release scheduled.

OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 105.67 at 52,552.97 and the S&P 500 Index down 38.63 at 7,533.77. The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.57%. Early Friday, September Dow Jones futures are down 318 points. European markets are mixed to lower with the spot futures of the London FTSE 100 trading up 0.18%, spot futures of Germany’s DAX trading down 0.31% and spot futures of France’s CAC Index trading down 0.66%. Asian markets are lower with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index down 4.03% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index down 3.05%.

The September euro is down $0.0006 at $1.1459. The September U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.07 at 100.64. The September 30-year T-bond is up 17/32nds, while August gold is up $5.90 at $3,998.0 and August crude oil is up $1.65 at $80.60. September Malaysian palm oil futures are down 0.20%. On China’s Dalian exchange, September corn was down 0.6%, September soybeans were down 0.4%, September soybean meal was down 0.2% and September soybean oil was down 0.4%. On China’s Dalian exchange, September corn translated to $8.59. September soybeans translated to $15.22.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN:

September corn futures are once again trading a few pennies lower early Friday, thus far giving back most of the gains from Wednesday’s session as bullish momentum has proved difficult to build this week despite encouraging signs through the first half of the week. Thursday’s rejection at the 50-day moving average ($4.45) for September futures may set the market up for a retest of the 20-day moving average near $4.30. Weather risk for the U.S. corn crop remains present, particularly with rainfall being an uncertainty over the next week after an already dry week. However, the break in the heat forecasted for early next weekly has likely encouraged some sellers, combined with Thursday’s Drought Monitor which showed no change to the percentage of U.S. corn area in drought at 19%, with the far western reaches of the Belt still the driest regions. It has also been a soft week for demand prospects for corn, with last week’s ethanol production disappointing at just 1.040 million barrels per day (bpd), while last week’s export sales were also tepid at just 24.7 mb between the old and new crop books. In world markets, reversal action in European futures off three-plus year highs early Thursday has also been a source of pressure. Over the past month, November European futures have rallied over $33 per metric ton (almost 90 cents per bushel) and may feel production risks are factored in at this point until the degree of yield loss is known with more certainty, though prices will likely remain supported as well by persistent heat.

SOYBEANS:

Soybean futures are slightly lower early Friday, fading from Thursday’s rejection of prices once again at the $12.00 mark on both old and new crop contracts. From a technical standpoint, the market is thus far holding immediate weekly support near $11.85 for August futures, which is a positive sign. Unlike corn, soybean demand indicators this week were very good, beginning on Wednesday with a bullish NOPA crush report which came in over 10 mb above trade guesses at 214.3 mb. Crush premiums remain on the rebound from the June selloff in soy products, with soybean oil leading the charge on bullish outside energy influence as well as very strong demand for soy oil within the U.S. biofuel industry. Export sales for the week ending July 9 were also excellent, with 65 mb of new crop sales extending total sales to almost double the volume at this point in 2025. With South American supplies solidified until the next round of harvests in 2027, 2026 U.S. production will remain in the spotlight with a crucial 30-45 days of weather ahead and the balance sheet still heavily reliant on a record tying national average yield to hold ending stocks above the 300 mb mark.

WHEAT:

September Kansas City wheat futures bounced from overnight lows and are currently modestly higher, attempting to regain the losses from Thursday’s profit taking session. Before reversing, Thursday’s highs marked the second highest intraday trade of the year thus far for the September KC contract as prices remain well supported by the logistical turmoil in the Black Sea. However, if the U.S. is to benefit from a shift in world demand it hasn’t become apparent just yet, with export commitments still running well below the same point in 2025. Sales in the week ending July 9 totaled just 8.6 mb, the lowest of the marketing year thus far although it is still very early (only six weeks in). European (Paris milling) prices hit 17-month highs on Thursday before profit taking set in. Through the second quarter of 2026, while it became clear that wheat production around the globe was set to decline year over year, Russia had stood as a bearish argument to any perceived shortages with a crop size forecasted to be only 2% lower than in 2025 and originally thought to export roughly the same as the last year too. However, with the latter now uncertain, the question becomes what other countries can fill the gap amid lower production. A factor to consider is that world wheat reserves (outside of China) did end the 2025-26 cycle at an eight-year high which may soften the impact should Russia’s wheat export program (largest in the world) be significantly hindered.

Rhett can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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