Well Above Average

General Overview: SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST COAST. MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

EAST:
A cold front will push through the eastern states this weekend into early next week. Rain and thunderstorms will spread across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal regions by Sunday into Monday. The front will bring widespread precipitation to much of the Eastern Seaboard, with rainfall extending from the Gulf Coast through New England. By Tuesday, high pressure builds in behind the front, bringing drier conditions to most of the region. Coastal areas may continue to see some shower activity as the front stalls offshore. The Great Lakes region will experience rain showers transitioning to drier conditions as the system moves through.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures ahead of the front, with readings 2-6°F above normal across portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast. Temperatures will cool to near normal behind the frontal passage.

-Days 4-6: Generally near normal temperatures across most of the East, with slightly above normal readings persisting in parts of the Northeast.

-Days 7-10: Temperatures trending near normal for most areas, with some slight warming possible by day 10.

CENTRAL:
The most significant weather will occur across the South Central states on Saturday, where a potent system will bring the threat of severe thunderstorms to Arkansas and surrounding areas. This severe weather threat includes the possibility of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The system will be accompanied by a strong cold front that will sweep through the region, bringing rain and thunderstorms from the Mississippi Valley eastward. By Sunday, the severe threat diminishes as the front pushes eastward. High pressure builds into the Central Plains by Monday, bringing drier conditions. Another frontal system approaches the Upper Midwest by midweek, with rain developing across portions of the Northern Plains.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Significantly above normal temperatures across much of the Central Plains and Midwest, with anomalies of 6-12°F above normal, particularly in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. The warmest conditions will be ahead of the cold front.

-Days 4-6: Temperatures moderate to near normal or slightly above normal for most areas as high pressure dominates.

-Days 7-10: Warming trend develops with above normal temperatures returning to the Central Plains and Upper Midwest, with anomalies of 6-10°F above normal by days 9-10, particularly in the Dakotas and Minnesota.

WEST:
Several weather systems will affect the Western states over the next week. Mixed precipitation is expected across portions of the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, with rain along the coast and higher elevation snow. Multiple areas of low pressure will move through the region, bringing periods of precipitation to the Northwest and Northern Rockies. The Southwest will remain generally dry under high pressure, though some low pressure systems will affect California and the Desert Southwest at times. By midweek, a new system brings precipitation to the Colorado Rockies and parts of the Southwest.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near normal temperatures for most areas, with some slightly below normal readings in parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies where precipitation is occurring.

-Days 4-6: Slightly above normal temperatures developing across much of the interior West, with anomalies of 2-4°F above normal.

-Days 7-10: Warming trend continues with above normal temperatures spreading across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. The Pacific Northwest may see some below normal temperatures as new systems approach. Southern California and the Desert Southwest will remain near to slightly above normal.

TROPICAL:
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas for potential tropical development. There are post-tropical remnants in the Atlantic, with a yellow hatched area indicating less than 40% chance of cyclone formation in the next seven days. Another area in the Caribbean also shows a less than 40% chance of development. Neither system poses an immediate threat to the United States, but will need to be monitored over the coming days.