Warmer for Most Still

**GENERAL OVERVIEW:**

An active weather pattern is unfolding across much of the contiguous United States as we move through the first week of June 2026. The most significant near-term hazards are centered on the Central Plains and South Central regions, where heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms are explicitly highlighted through Thursday. A broad area of rain and thunderstorm activity extends from the Gulf Coast northward through the Mississippi Valley and into the Upper Midwest, driven by a series of low pressure systems and associated frontal boundaries. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies continue to see rounds of precipitation associated with onshore flow and frontal passages. The East is largely dominated by a departing frontal system early in the period, with precipitation shifting and diminishing through the weekend. A broad above-normal temperature signal is present across much of the nation throughout the 10-day period, most pronounced across the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast.

—

**EAST:**

The period begins with an active frontal system affecting the Great Lakes and Northeast. A low pressure center is positioned over the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday evening, with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front pushing southward. Rain is occurring across a broad swath from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. By Friday evening, the low has shifted eastward, and precipitation — primarily in the form of rain — continues to affect the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into New England, with the heaviest activity focused near the low center over the Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms are also present in the mix across portions of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic corridor during this timeframe.

By Saturday evening, the synoptic pattern shifts considerably. A cold front pushes through the eastern third of the country, with a low pressure center now positioned near the Mid-Atlantic coast. Rain and thunderstorm activity is noted across a broad area from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic and into New England, with the precipitation shield extending southward along the Southeast coast. The cold front’s passage will bring a gradual end to precipitation from west to east across the region heading into Sunday. By Sunday evening, a low pressure system lingers near the Mid-Atlantic coast, and rain continues along the immediate coastal Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic, while the interior portions of the East see diminishing precipitation coverage.

**Temperature Anomalies:**
– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest are running notably above normal, with anomalies of 6°F or more above average on Days 1 and 2, expanding to include much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley by Day 3. A modest below-normal signal is present across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Days 1 and 2, with anomalies of roughly 3 to 6°F below average in that area. By Day 3, the below-normal signal in the Southeast has shifted slightly westward while the above-normal signal across the Great Lakes and Northeast strengthens.
– **Days 4–6:** The above-normal temperature pattern becomes more widespread and robust across the East. The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast all show anomalies of 6°F or more above average, with the most pronounced departures centered on the Great Lakes and New England corridor. This above-normal signal persists and expands through Day 6, with much of the eastern seaboard running warmer than average.
– **Days 7–10:** The above-normal temperature signal gradually moderates but remains in place across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast through the end of the period. Anomalies are generally in the 3 to 6°F above-normal range across much of the region, with the most persistent warmth focused on the northern tier from the Great Lakes into New England. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic trend closer to normal by Days 9 and 10.

—

**CENTRAL:**

The Central region is home to the most significant weather hazards during the near-term period. On Wednesday into Thursday, **heavy rain and flash flooding are explicitly highlighted across portions of western and central Texas into New Mexico**, representing the most critical threat in the region. Additionally, **severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad area spanning portions of the Central and Northern Plains**, including areas from Kansas northward through Nebraska, South Dakota, and into southern Minnesota. Rain and thunderstorm activity is widespread across the Central Plains, stretching from the Gulf Coast northward through the Mississippi Valley and into the Upper Midwest.

Moving into Thursday into Friday, the severe thunderstorm threat shifts northward and remains focused across the Northern Plains, particularly over portions of Nebraska, South Dakota, and into southern Minnesota. The heavy rain and flash flooding threat that was centered over Texas and New Mexico on Day 1 is no longer explicitly highlighted for Day 2, though widespread rain and thunderstorm activity continues across the Central and Southern Plains, the Mississippi Valley, and into the Gulf Coast states. A low pressure system over the Central Plains continues to organize and drive this activity.

By Friday evening into Saturday, the precipitation pattern evolves as multiple low pressure systems interact. Thunderstorm activity remains widespread from the Central Plains southward through the South Central states and into the Gulf Coast. A cold front sweeping through the region begins to push the main precipitation shield eastward, though convective activity persists across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states through Saturday evening. By Sunday, the cold front has pushed well to the east, and precipitation coverage across the Central region diminishes significantly, with only scattered activity remaining near the Gulf Coast and in the Northern Plains ahead of a new frontal system approaching from the northwest.

**Temperature Anomalies:**
– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures across the Northern Plains are running well above normal on Days 1 and 2, with anomalies exceeding 12°F above average over portions of the Dakotas and into Minnesota. The Central and Southern Plains are generally near to slightly above normal. A notable below-normal signal develops across portions of central and southern Texas and into New Mexico by Days 2 and 3, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average in those areas.
– **Days 4–6:** The above-normal temperature signal across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest remains prominent through Day 4, with anomalies of 6°F or more above average. Texas continues to show a below-normal signal on Days 4 and 5, with anomalies of roughly 3 to 6°F below average. By Day 6, the below-normal signal in Texas diminishes, and the above-normal pattern becomes more dominant across the Northern and Central Plains.
– **Days 7–10:** The above-normal temperature signal across the Central region gradually moderates but remains in place, particularly across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Anomalies are generally in the 3 to 6°F above-normal range through the end of the period. The South Central states trend closer to normal by Days 9 and 10, with no significant below-normal signal remaining.

—

**WEST:**

The West is characterized by an active precipitation pattern across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies throughout much of the forecast period, while the interior Southwest and California remain largely dry. On Thursday evening, a low pressure system is positioned off the Pacific Coast, with rain and snow occurring across the Pacific Northwest and extending into the northern Rockies and portions of the northern Great Basin. Snow is confined to the higher terrain of the Cascades and northern Rockies, while rain is more widespread at lower elevations along the Pacific Coast.

By Friday evening, precipitation continues across the Pacific Northwest, with rain and snow persisting in the Cascades and northern Rockies. A low pressure system over the northern Rockies helps maintain this active pattern. The interior Southwest and California remain largely precipitation-free during this timeframe.

Through Saturday and Sunday, a new frontal system approaches the Pacific Northwest from the northwest, bringing additional rounds of rain and mountain snow to the Cascades and northern Rockies. By Sunday evening, a cold front is sweeping southward through the northern Rockies and into the Great Basin, with rain and snow continuing across the Pacific Northwest and northern Mountain West. The interior Southwest sees isolated precipitation activity, while California remains mostly dry.

**Temperature Anomalies:**
– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures across much of the West are running above normal, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above average across California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and portions of the Mountain West. The Pacific Northwest shows a mixed signal, with portions of western Washington and Oregon running above normal while parts of the northern Rockies are near to slightly below normal. By Day 3, the above-normal signal across the Southwest and Great Basin remains intact.
– **Days 4–6:** The above-normal temperature signal across the West persists and in some areas strengthens through Days 4 through 6. The Mountain West, including portions of Colorado, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona, continues to show anomalies of 6°F or more above average. The Pacific Northwest shows a more variable signal, with portions of Washington and Oregon trending slightly below normal on Days 5 and 6 as frontal systems move through, while the interior West remains well above average.
– **Days 7–10:** The above-normal temperature pattern across the West continues through the end of the period, though it gradually moderates in intensity. Anomalies across California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest are generally in the 3 to 6°F above-normal range through Days 7 through 10. The Pacific Northwest trends closer to normal by the end of the period, with no significant cold anomalies depicted.

—

**TROPICAL:**

No tropical cyclone activity is anticipated across the Atlantic basin or Gulf of Mexico during the next seven days. In the Eastern Pacific, a tropical depression is currently located well offshore in the central Pacific, and a separate area of disturbed weather is being monitored in the vicinity of Central America and the eastern Pacific with a 40 to 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days. Neither of these systems poses any threat to the continental United States at this time.