Warm Start to the Week

GENERAL OVERVIEW: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NATION WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS. MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING RAIN, SNOW, AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE EXPANDING EASTWARD. BY WEEKEND, A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AND SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE COUNTRY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

EAST:  A relatively quiet pattern will persist across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Friday with high pressure maintaining dry conditions. By Saturday, precipitation will begin spreading into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a frontal system approaches from the west. Sunday will feature more widespread rainfall across the Southeast with some thunderstorm activity developing along the Gulf Coast. The system will continue to push eastward, bringing rain to much of the Eastern Seaboard by Sunday evening. Some mixed precipitation and freezing rain is possible in portions of the Great Lakes region, particularly around the eastern shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, which could create hazardous travel conditions.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures across most of the region, with the Northeast experiencing temperatures 1-3°F above normal. The Southeast will see temperatures 3-6°F above normal.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend continues with temperatures climbing to 3-6°F above normal across most of the region. Some areas along the Atlantic coast may see slightly cooler conditions as rain moves in.

-Days 7-10: Temperatures remain 3-6°F above normal for most areas, with the warmest anomalies focused in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions.

CENTRAL:  A developing low pressure system in the Southern Plains will be the focal point for precipitation through the period. Thursday will feature scattered precipitation across the Southwest and Central Plains. By Friday, this system will intensify and expand eastward, bringing widespread rain to the South Central states. Saturday will be particularly active as a cold front pushes through the region, creating a sharp boundary between precipitation types. Thunderstorms are likely across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas, with some potentially becoming strong. Rain will spread northward into the Midwest by Sunday. The system will continue to organize with a well-defined low pressure center moving from Texas toward the Gulf Coast states by the end of the weekend.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Significantly above normal temperatures across the entire region, with anomalies of 6-12°F above normal in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The Southern Plains will see temperatures 3-6°F above normal.

-Days 4-6: Continued warmth with temperatures remaining 6-12°F above normal across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The warm anomalies will expand southward through the period.

-Days 7-10: Persistent above normal temperatures, particularly across the Northern Plains where anomalies will reach 8-12°F above normal. The Central Plains and Midwest will see temperatures 4-8°F above normal.

WEST:  An active pattern will continue across the Western states with multiple systems bringing precipitation. The Southwest will experience a mix of rain, snow, and thunderstorms through Thursday, with some mixed precipitation extending into the Rockies. By Friday, precipitation will focus more on the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. A warm front along the West Coast will bring rain to coastal areas of Washington and Oregon. By Saturday, another system will approach the Pacific Northwest, bringing additional precipitation. The Intermountain West will see periods of snow, particularly at higher elevations. The Southwest will begin to dry out by Sunday as high pressure builds in from the south.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Generally above normal temperatures across most of the region, with the warmest anomalies (4-8°F above normal) in the Northern Rockies. The Pacific Northwest will see near normal to slightly above normal temperatures.

-Days 4-6: Continued above normal temperatures for most areas, with the warmest conditions in the Northern Rockies and High Plains where temperatures will be 6-10°F above normal. Parts of California may see near normal temperatures.

-Days 7-10: Slight cooling trend but still above normal for most areas. The Northern Rockies will remain 4-8°F above normal, while parts of California and the Southwest may see temperatures closer to normal. Some below normal temperatures possible in portions of the Pacific Northwest.

TROPICAL: No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next 7 days in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins.