Vitol: Global Gasoline Demand to Peak by 2030s From EV Use

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Global gasoline demand will likely peak by the early 2030s as electrification and efficiency improvements cap overall fuel use across the world’s major markets, oil trader Vitol said in an updated of its long-term global outlook released on onday (2/9).

Key assumptions:

• Net consumption is projected to drop by 1.8 million bpd by 2040, with China facing a decline of more than 50% from its current peak levels.
• While the United States remains the largest market, its demand should fall by 0.8 million bpd as electric vehicle adoption accelerates significantly after 2035.
• The global fleet of electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) will reach approximately 690 million units by 2040, representing roughly one-third of the two billion vehicles on the road.
• China’s domestic market has already reached an approximate 50% of projected EV/PHEV sales, underscoring its rapidly declining demand for gasoline.
• European demand for gasoline might grow through the early 2030s as drivers switch from diesel-powered cars back to traditional gasoline engines.
• Road diesel demand is expected to stagnate before entering a sharper decline phase that will gather momentum after the middle of the next decade.

• Global diesel consumption should fall to 19.6 million bpd by 2040, driven largely by the surprising growth of electric heavy commercial vehicles in China.
• Heavy trucks currently represent 60% of road diesel use, making their transition to battery-swapping technology a critical factor in the structural decline of middle distillates.
• With global car fleet expanding to 2 billion units, liquid fuels will remain material as internal combustion engines comprise two-thirds of the total.